Police cannot afford to be caught off guard on 29 May and beyond. Most studies and strategic plans to ensure safety during the elections were done before the latest Constitutional Court judgment, which has barred Jacob Zuma, leader of the MK Party, from re-joining Parliament due to his 15-month prison sentence for contempt of court.
While the Institute for Security Studies has predicted that the polls were unlikely to result in widespread violence, it said there are legitimate concerns about outbreaks of violence during or after the elections:
“The largest recent outbreak of mass violence in South Africa was triggered by former president Jacob Zuma’s supporters in response to his July 2021 incarceration. The rioting and looting left over 300 people dead and thousands jobless, wiping R50 billion from the economy. So when members of the new uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, whose most prominent campaigner is Zuma, openly threaten mass violence if they don’t get their way, there’s reason to worry. But could violence on the scale of that experienced in July 2021 recur?”
The inability of law enforcement agencies to swiftly contain the July 2021 unrest and protect lives and property underscored a systemic failure that cannot be ignored as SA approaches the general elections later this month.
One of the most concerning aspects of the unrest was the lack of preparedness in terms of intelligence gathering and early warning systems. The rapid escalation of violence and looting caught authorities off guard, leading to a breakdown of law and order in many areas.
Three weeks ago Minister of Defence and Military Veterans Thandi Modise assured South Africans that the elections would be held in a safe and secure environment.
This assurance is based on intelligence-led planning and operations, a critical aspect that was lacking in July 2021.
The significance of robust crime intelligence often takes a back seat in political discussions. Crime intelligence is not just about solving crimes after they occur; it plays a pivotal role in preventing criminal activities, safeguarding democracy, ensuring public safety, and upholding the rule of law.
By proactively gathering intelligence on potential security risks, taking preventive measures, and now reassessing security risks, police can help create the safe and secure environment that Modise promises.
For this to happen, police need to have the necessary resources, expertise, and independence to carry out their mandate effectively. This includes investing in training programs for intelligence officers, enhancing collaboration with other law enforcement agencies, leveraging technology and data analytics for intelligence gathering, and ensuring transparency and accountability in the operations of crime intelligence units.
The readiness of the Justice, Crime Prevention, and Security (JCPS) Cluster, the enlisting of more than 350 private security companies to assist pre and post-election, and the reassurance by the state may suggest that violence is unlikely, however, police must stay on the top of things.
Manhar Parshotam is the co-founder of Dragon Protection Services
