The latest crime statistics presented by Acting Minister of Police Firoz Cachalia raise serious concerns about accuracy, completeness and transparency, especially during the 16 Days of Activism Against Violence on Women and Children, Lisa Schickerling MP – DA Spokesperson on Police, said last week.

“While the DA notes a marginal decline in murders and attempted murders, the stark reality remains that violence affecting women and vulnerable groups is increasing and key information is missing,” she said in a statement.

Even though SAPS records crimes against children none were presented. Failing to release this data is a serious omission that prevents communities and Parliament from understanding the true scale of the crisis, according to the DA.

A major discrepancy appears between SAPS’ categories:
SAPS “contact sexual offences” category reports only 170 to 196 cases
SAPS rape statistics for the same period show 6 559 in Q1 and 7 204 in Q2

“This inconsistency raises a critical oversight question. If SAPS reports two different sets of figures for sexual violence, which data stream should the public trust?” Schickerling asked.

Small percentage drops hide extreme levels of daily violence

SAPS highlights a slight reduction in murder and attempted murder, but the real scale remains ‘severe’. During Q2 alone:

5 270 murders equals 58 murders per day, or 2.4 murders per hour
5 519 attempted murders equals 61 per day
7 204 rapes equals 78 rapes per day, or more than 3 every hour
32 854 cases of assault GBH equals 365 serious assaults per day, or 15 per hour
4 784 carjackings equals 52 per day

“This is not a picture of communities feeling safer. It is a country experiencing constant and severe violence,” Schickerling said.

High volume violence is increasing, not decreasing

SAPS’ own numbers show:
Rape increased by almost 10 percent
Assault GBH increased by 5.2 percent
Carjackings increased by 2.4 percent

“This means more people are being attacked, injured or sexually violated. A slight reduction in murder does not offset the escalating violence in categories that mainly affect women and children,” Schickerling said.

SAPS acknowledges massive underreporting but fails to reflect this in the public narrative

According to the Stats SA Governance, Public Safety and Justice Survey:
32.5 percent of assaults are not reported
42.4 percent of home robberies are not reported

These are exactly the categories that dominate contact crime totals, the DA pointed out.

“Given the data gaps, contradictions and omissions, how can South Africans trust any of SAPS’ reported GBV figures? Furthermore, what is the SAPS plan to fix the escalating levels of rape, assault and violence that women and children face every day?” Schickerling asked.

“If almost half of these contact crimes are never reported, the true scale of GBV and child violence is significantly worse than SAPS figures indicate. This is why the DA calls for accurate crime statistics. They show where the problems are, guide where resources should go and expose failures so that action can be taken. Omitting child crime from the records leaves communities blind and vulnerable. The DA deems this as a failure of transparency and accountability and a betrayal of the communities who are most at risk,” the party concluded.

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The stats cover the period from April to September.

Categories that saw reductions includes murder, assault, common robbery with aggravating circumstances, contact crime, rape and sexual assault. This also includes carjacking, robbery at residential premises, robbery at non-residential premises and cash-in-transit heists.

Releasing the crime stats in Pretoria, Crime Registrar, Major-General Norman Sekhukhune said there has, however, been increases in categories such as attempted murder, attempted sexual assault, common assault and contact sexual offences.

According to the stats, there has been a reduction in murder: in 2024, 6545 cases were reported while 5794 cases were reported in 2025.

Common assault: in 2024, 42 721 cases were reported, in 2025, 41978 cases were reported (0.7 percent reduction)
Sexual assault: in 2024, 1839, in 2025, 1827 cases were reported (0.7 percent reduction)
Carjacking: in 2024, 5447 cases, in 2025, 4778 cases were reported (12.3 percent reduction)
Robbery at residential premises: in 2024, 5967 cases were reported, in 2025, 5103 cases were reported (14.5 percent reduction)
Robbery at non residential premises: in 2024, 3873 cases were reported, in 2025, 3044 (21.4 percent reduction)
Cash in transit: in 2024, 40 cases were reported, 2025, 24 cases were reported (16 counts lower)

Between July and September 2024, the police recorded more than 160 000 contact crimes, compared to 155 000 during the same period in 2024.

Carjackings decreased by 12.3 percent, commercial by 2.4 percent while residential robberies decreased by 14.5 percent.

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This underlines the need for a more stable, transparent system. Crime data is a public good. It should be routinely released to support cross-government decision making, enable evidence-based crime prevention, and help communities respond effectively.

South Africa’s violent crime crisis is not just a policing problem, but a shared responsibility, requiring coordinated input from many sectors of government and society. This fact is widely recognised by the government, the police and analysts. Yet every quarter, it’s the National Commissioner of the South African Police Service (SAPS) who reports the latest trends to Parliament. This is not a productive way to interrogate the data or frame the problem.

The current arrangement forces police leadership to account for complex socioeconomic trends that extend beyond their mandate. It also undermines public trust. Because crime statistics are used to measure police performance, both internally and externally, the police face strong incentives to under-record incidents. This creates a conflict of interest that can distort the data, discourage timely sharing and undermine services to victims.

There is no ‘correct’ model for how crime statistics can or should be made public. Countries handle this differently depending on their institutional capacities, legal frameworks and policy priorities. In many places, arrangements have evolved as systems mature and expectations for transparency grow.

For example, in 2016 the SAPS transitioned from presenting crime statistics annually to quarterly. The Institute for Security Studies advocated for, and welcomed, this change. Reliable crime data is essential for effective policy. It should be regularly released by a neutral, technically competent body that is free of operational pressures.

One option is to transfer the responsibility to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). This isn’t the only possible model, but it illustrates how a more stable, transparent system could look.

The SAPS and Stats SA have a memorandum of understanding to enhance the quality and integrity of crime statistics. It commits the two institutions to cooperation on standardising classifications, improving verification and quality assurance, and building capacity to ensure more reliable, consistent data.

The SAPS has already invested considerable effort in strengthening its data systems and analytical capacity. This proposal builds on that foundation. The next step could be to formally designate Stats SA as the official body for validating and releasing crime statistics at the station, provincial and national levels.

The model has precedent. In Canada, crime statistics are produced and released by Statistics Canada. In Australia, they are published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. In the United Kingdom, responsibility moved from the Home Office to the Office for National Statistics in 2012 to address concerns about politicisation of the process.

In all these countries, official statistics are complemented by victimisation surveys. Because the surveys capture incidents not reported to the police, they offer a more complete picture of crime harm. Stats SA already has this capacity through its annual Governance, Public Safety and Justice Survey and its broader constitutional mandate.

The official release of crime statistics could follow a model similar to other national datasets. Stats SA would publish the data quarterly without fanfare, accompanied by clear methodology and basic trend analysis. Once a year, Stats SA could lead a more structured publication and interrogation cycle, combining the year’s statistics with victimisation survey results and in-depth analysis of long-term trends and drivers.

Parliament could convene dedicated portfolio committee hearings, drawing on the SAPS for operational insights, as well as departments such as social development, health, justice, and basic education. This creates the proper forum to interrogate underlying causes, policy performance and cross-government responsibilities.

This approach wouldn’t fix the limitations of police crime statistics. The figures would still reflect only what is reported to and recorded by the police. Many incidents never reach the police because people may lack trust in the justice system, fear retaliation or consider the matter too minor to report. This happens worldwide, which is why official statistics almost always understate the true scale of crime.

However, consistently pairing police crime figures with victimisation survey data would provide a fuller picture of harm, and help government and the public interpret trends more meaningfully.

Over time, other key datasets could be incorporated, such as mortuary-based homicide records and figures from emergency medical services. Bodies such as the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research and the Human Sciences Research Council could contribute technical expertise to strengthen system design, data capture, and validation.

This approach would reinforce the integrity of the national statistics system, in which the SAPS, Stats SA and other bodies each have clearly defined roles.

The SAPS would still collect and analyse crime data for operational purposes. In fact, its analytical capacity should be strengthened. This should include building the Crime Registrar’s capacity to inspect and train police at station level, ensuring better quality collection and capturing of crime data.

Good data and analysis are essential for targeted and timely responses. The national release would provide a neutral overview of broad trends. At the same time, local-level data and analysis would support real-time policing and community safety action.

Releasing crime figures through Stats SA would not absolve the SAPS of its core responsibilities. In fact, it should sharpen accountability for things within its control, including disciplinary processes, expenditure, investigations and public trust. It would also make clear that addressing violence is not just the police’s responsibility.

Implementing a more neutral, robust system will have resource implications. It will require coordination and could mean crime statistics take slightly longer to finalise. This would be a reasonable trade-off if it improves the quality and utility of the data.

The exact institutional arrangement matters less than the principle. Crime data must be released in a way that shows government’s commitment to transparency, fosters public confidence in the police, and promotes a collaborative response to crime.

Written by Anine Kriegler, Senior Researcher, Justice and Violence Prevention, ISS Pretoria.

Republished with permission from ISS Africa. The original article can be found here.

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These figures were due at the end of August 2025, the same period in which SAPS released last year’s data, raising the obvious question: What is the reason for the delay this time, the party asked.

“This latest failure comes amid deepening turmoil within the Police Ministry, marked by uncertainty over the acting Minister’s authority, a leadership vacuum at the top of SAPS, and ongoing investigations by the Ad Hoc Committee into governance failures within the Ministry. Together, these developments paint a picture of a police service in crisis, one that appears to have lost focus on its constitutional duty to protect and inform the public,” said ActionSA Member of Parliament Dereleen James.

“At a time when violent crime continues to terrorise communities across South Africa, this lack of transparency and accountability is unacceptable. Crime statistics are not merely data points, they are essential tools for policy decisions, public oversight, and rebuilding the trust of a nation living in fear.

“ActionSA calls for the immediate release of the outstanding quarterly crime statistics, accompanied by a full and public explanation for the delay. We further call for strong parliamentary oversight to ensure that those responsible for these recurring failures are held accountable.

“Year after year, South Africans are promised a more transparent and accountable police service. Yet what we continue to witness is instability, excuses, and a persistent disregard for the public’s right to know. It is time for the leadership of SAPS and the Police Ministry to stop hiding behind bureaucracy and face the people they are meant to serve,” James concluded.

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