Provincial Police Commissioner Lieutenant-General Tommy Mthombeni presented the provincial statistics and indicated a 7.9% decrease in community-reported serious crimes over the same period last year.

“This represents a significant step forward in the province’s ongoing efforts to combat crime.

“The committee is particularly encouraged by the 10.8% reduction in murder cases, which reflects the continued commitment of law enforcement agencies and the effectiveness of collaborative crime prevention strategies,” the committee said in a statement.

However, concern about the “ongoing occurrence of multiple murder incidents, which continue to devastate communities” remains.

The committee cited two violent and “disturbing” incidents in Soshanguve where victims were stoned, shot and partially burnt and in Kagiso where seven people were found dead.

“In line with the government’s stance that crime has no colour in our country, the committee also notes a reported farm murder during the period. In this case, an African male was killed during a robbery in which livestock – including cows, goats, and sheep –were stolen. Such acts of violence are unacceptable in any context.

“The committee is gravely alarmed by the continued killing of police officers. Eleven officers lost their lives during the quarter – one while on duty and ten off-duty. The committee strongly condemns these attacks, emphasising that violence against law enforcement is an attack on the state and the safety of all citizens,” the statement read.

On a downturn

A decrease in sexual violence crimes and reduction in robbery with aggravating circumstances are considered “positive” developments.

“Encouragingly, incidents of sexual violence declined by 2.1%. While this decrease is acknowledged, the committee stresses that more must be done to significantly reduce such crimes and to protect the dignity and safety of women and children across Gauteng.

“The 8.9% reduction in robbery with aggravating circumstances is another positive development. However, the committee is increasingly concerned about the 15.8% rise in kidnapping cases. These are often linked to hijackings, robbery, ransom demands, extortion, and human trafficking. The safety and freedom of movement of Gauteng residents must be protected with urgency,” the committee said.

Law enforcement is called upon to step up efforts even further to deal with crime in the province.

“The committee applauds the success of crime-fighting initiatives such as Operation Shanela, which resulted in the arrest of 28,851 suspects, including 8,110 undocumented foreign nationals. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of coordinated and sustained enforcement operations.

“While the committee welcomes the progress made, it emphasizes that this is only the beginning. Gauteng must continue to intensify efforts to eradicate criminal activity and build safe, resilient communities where every resident can live free from fear and violence,” the statement concluded.

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However, new data suggests that there could be cause for optimism. The January-March 2025 crime statistics released by Police Minister Senzo Mchunu on 23 May show that while violent crime remains high, notable decreases occurred in key categories such as murder.

If South Africa is indeed turning a corner, what could be the cause, and how can we sustain the trend?

The long-term trend for murder rates (Chart 1) suggests a strong correlation between levels of good governance and crime. The sharp increase between 1979 and 1993 reflects political violence during the last decade of apartheid, much of which occurred with the complicity or involvement of the state. The rate peaked in 1993 at around 70 murders per 100 000 people.

The equally dramatic decrease between 1994 and 2011 was an expected consequence of settling political strife as South Africa adapted to a new democracy. The lowest rate on record in 2011 was associated with the 2010 Soccer World Cup – which united South Africans behind a government determined to host a safe international event.

Chart 1: South Africa’s murder rate over 50 years

The negative turnaround since then started two years after Jacob Zuma took office as president in 2009. Persistent increases over the next 13 years were associated with a weakening of state institutions and rule of law during state capture.

Corruption at all levels of government rose, and local criminal groups became embedded in many communities, leading to more illicit firearms, drugs, robberies, extortion and kidnapping. A 2024 Institute for Security Studies (ISS) analysis of firearm crime indicated that the availability of illegal guns in the hands of criminals fuelled violence.

The ISS’ Protest and Public Violence Monitor shows how South Africans feel about crime and governance. Since 2013, there have been over 1 250 protests over crime nationwide, often concentrated in cities. These demonstrations represent just over 11% of all protests recorded and frequently occur in cities where violent crime is high.

Many of these protests were against the police or local authorities, often intensified by poor governance and service delivery, including water and electricity woes.

The latest police statistics show notable drops in major violent crimes when comparing January-March 2025 with the same quarter in 2024 (Chart 2). Murder levels decreased by 12.4% to 5 727 murders, or an average of 64 per day.

 

Aggravated robbery dropped by 10.4% to 31 749 cases – an average of 353 a day. This decrease was driven mainly by the fall in non-residential robberies and carjacking, which are among the types of robbery making up the aggravated robbery category. Attempted murders were down 5.8% to 6 985 incidents, and serious assaults fell 5.3% to 43 776. Overall, sexual offence levels remained largely unchanged at 13 452 (six more cases), though rape increased by 36 cases.

Kidnappings were the most significant exception to the downward trend for violent crime, rising by 6.8% to reach 4 571 cases. This suggests that kidnapping is increasingly being adopted as a low-risk, high-reward offence.

The reduction in murder rates is good news, but it’s too early to know whether this is an outlier in an ongoing upward trend or the start of a sustained decrease underpinned by stronger governance. As promising as this is, better governance alone won’t address persistently high violence levels. Even at its lowest point in 2011, the murder rate was more than five times higher than the international average.

A deeper look at the latest statistics shows that two key factors drive violent crime in South Africa. The first is the prevalence of organised crime, which drives most robberies, kidnappings and gun violence. Organised and syndicated crimes can be reduced by intelligence-driven, targeted policing.

It’s too early to know whether the drop in murder is an outlier or the start of a sustained decrease

The second factor is interpersonal violence. Half of all murders occur over weekends, and many are associated with the excessive use of alcohol, drugs or both. Violent crime is highest in the metropolitan areas, which account for over half of these offences nationwide. The four most populous provinces – Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape and Eastern Cape – contribute 72% of murders nationally.

Though murder and attempted murder rates in Gauteng are comparable with the province’s share of the national population, the province (especially Johannesburg) is a focal point for two violent crime types. Gauteng accounts for 36% of armed robberies (including 55% of all car hijackings) and 53% of kidnappings nationally.

Regarding rural safety, the statistics show that six people were murdered on farms or smallholdings between January-March 2025, two of whom were farmers. Mchunu said both were black farmers. The other four victims were employed or resident on farms (one was white).

A high number of children are killed in South Africa, often in crossfire or at the hands of their caregivers. The SAPS estimates that 1 100 children were murdered between April 2024 and March 2025. A 2015 Save the Children South Africa and University of Cape Town study showed that violence against children costs the country R238 billion (about US$13 billion) annually – combining direct and opportunity costs.

A caring state that supports caregivers and families is key to breaking cycles of violence in the long term

Exposure to violence in childhood increases the chance of further victimisation later in life, and child victims could become adult perpetrators – sustaining inter-generational cycles of interpersonal violence. Experiencing violence in childhood is also associated with unemployment, dependency on grants, alcohol dependence and poor mental health.

Better leadership and commitment by government to curb violence could be starting to yield results. There is a renewed effort to strengthen the criminal justice system and strong turnaround strategies in the National Prosecuting Authority and South African Police Service, including partnerships with civil society organisations and the private sector.

Good, trustworthy government, strong rule of law and effective criminal justice and civilian oversight institutions are key to reducing crime and violence. But they aren’t enough to increase safety to the extent needed for a strong, healthy, more equitable society.

A holistic approach is vital, such as in the Presidency’s 2022 Integrated Crime and Violence Prevention Strategy. The strategy applies lessons from research, showing that a caring state supporting caregivers and families is key to breaking cycles of violence in the long term. This requires strong, sustained partnerships across sectors and the involvement of all South Africans.

This article was republished with permission from ISS Today. The original article can be found here.

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Covering the period from January to March 2025, SAPS reported a decline in several community-reported crimes. Murder cases dropped by 809 from the previous year’s corresponding quarter, with a national total of 5,727. Attempted murders, assaults, aggravated robberies, carjackings and cash-in-transit heists also recorded decreases. SAPS attributed these improvements in part to Operation Shanela, a nationwide crime-combatting initiative, with the leadership claiming that “we are not yet where we want to be, but the work is yielding results.”

However, the committee was far from convinced that the figures represented meaningful progress. Chairperson of the Committee, Ian Cameron, warned against complacency, saying that “no amount of strategy or resourcing can make up for a lack of public trust.” While the statistics may have moved in the right direction in some areas, Cameron and other committee members argued that the reality on the ground tells a much darker story, especially in high-risk areas like the Cape Flats, where gang violence continues to claim dozens of lives weekly.

Gender-based violence and rape remain disturbingly high, with reported rape cases increasing by 36 during the quarter. Most rapes occurred at the homes of either the victim or perpetrator. The Eastern Cape recorded the highest rape rate per capita, with 25 cases per 100,000 people, while Gauteng led in total case numbers. Shockingly, 80 rapes occurred at schools and other educational institutions. “This is a tsunami of horror,” said Democratic Alliance (DA) Committee member Diane Kohler-Barnard. “It’s beyond comprehension that such brutality is happening in our country. What is SAPS doing to stop it?” The African Christian Democratic Party’s Reverend Kenneth Meshoe echoed this sentiment, asking, “Are we going to remain stuck at a 10 percent conviction rate? Why are rapists not afraid of our justice system?” SAPS noted that during the quarter, 703 gender-based violence convictions were achieved, including 93 life sentences, yet acknowledged that backlogs and court delays remain a massive impediment to justice.

The most damning segment of the meeting came during a discussion on police accountability. After the hearing, Cameron issued a blistering condemnation of SAPS’s internal culture, stating, “After today’s engagement during the police portfolio committee with SAPS leadership, I am more convinced than ever that Section 34 inquiries under the SAPS Act must be urgently instituted against members of the police service who face serious criminal charges. These inquiries should not be optional. They should be considered a legal and moral imperative to ensure a credible, professional police service.” Cameron outlined several specific cases, all presented to SAPS leadership during the session. These included a constable charged with rape still on duty at a local station, an acting station commander facing charges of attempted murder and torture, a court orderly caught with over 900 Mandrax tablets still deployed at Cape Town Central, a member previously arrested for selling dockets and drunk driving now reinstated, and a detective out on bail for drug dealing still active. “This situation gravely undermines the credibility of SAPS and betrays the communities they are meant to serve. Section 34 inquiries are designed precisely to deal with this, by determining whether an officer is fit to remain in service,” Cameron said.

Members across party lines called for a hard line on internal misconduct. DA representative Lisa Shickerling noted, “There are police officers in the Western Cape still working despite being out on bail for rape. That is completely unacceptable.” ANC Committee member Fadiel Adams was equally direct, asking, “Why is it so hard to find a coloured policeman in a coloured suburb? Why are stations in the Cape Flats, where the dying is happening, so systematically under-resourced?” More than 80 percent of the country’s understaffed stations are located in that region, and committee members were outraged that hundreds of trained officers remained at home despite having been issued personnel numbers.

Further frustration centred on poor equipment and infrastructure. At the Delft police station, detectives reportedly share four mobile phones between 30 members. Action SA’s Dereleen James noted, “That is having a conventional approach for unconventional crime in these areas. No wonder morale is rock bottom.”

Firearms also featured prominently in the report. Most murders were committed using guns, and while police reported more confiscations, conviction rates remained abysmally low. “Only 5 percent of firearm-related arrests in Cape Town resulted in convictions,” Shickerling said. SAPS blamed court delays and overburdened forensic services, but committee members demanded an overhaul of tracking, prosecution and inter-agency collaboration.

The absence of a coherent anti-gang strategy was another major concern. The MK Party’s Glen Taaibosch noted the surge in murders over a single weekend, citing over 40 deaths linked to gang violence across Cape Town, the Eastern Cape and parts of Johannesburg. “I want to know how many of the murders this quarter are gang-related. If we don’t have a plan, we are in deep trouble,” he warned.

Cameron confirmed that the committee has resolved to summon the station commander of Fleurhof to account for alleged police inaction in the high-profile murder of Jayden-Lee Meek. “This marks the beginning of deeper station-level oversight because real accountability starts where crime happens,” he said.

As the meeting concluded, frustration remained high. Committee members reiterated their calls for full visibility on conviction rates, case backlogs, inter-departmental coordination and internal disciplinary processes. “People need to see that justice is being done. Until they do, until the criminals start fearing arrest and conviction, these numbers mean very little,” said Rise Mzansi’s Makashule Gana.

The fourth quarter stats may suggest progress on paper, but the Portfolio Committee on Police made one thing clear: without urgent, uncompromising action on police accountability and justice system reform, South Africans will continue to live under siege, and public trust in the police will continue to erode.

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Covering the period from January to March 2025, the fourth quarter report marks the end of the fiscal year and provides a benchmark for the efficacy of current policing strategies. Minister Mchunu was clear: progress is evident, but the journey to a safer South Africa remains fraught with challenges.

Sharp Decline in Murder

The most significant improvement came in the murder rate, which dropped by 12.4%, with 809 fewer killings compared to the same quarter the previous year. Reductions were also observed in attempted murder, grievous bodily harm (GBH), and common assault. In total, contact crimes declined by over 10,000 cases, a 5.8% drop.

“Every life saved is a step forward,” said Mchunu. “These figures show our intensified policing strategies are starting to yield results.”

Despite remaining the most crime-ridden provinces, the Western Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape all recorded progress in high-priority precincts, with several top stations showing either stabilisation or improvement.

Sexual Offences and Domestic Violence Still Prevalent

However, the data on sexual offences remains sobering. While overall increases were marginal (0.3%), they reflect an ongoing national crisis. Over 10,600 rape cases were reported in just three months. The majority of these crimes occurred in private residences, either those of the victims, perpetrators, or people known to them.

“The domestic space has become a dangerous place for too many,” said Mchunu, underscoring the urgency of targeted government intervention.

To address the scourge of gender-based violence and femicide (GBVF), the government has launched a 90-day blitz aimed at closing systemic gaps between law enforcement, the courts, and social services. Between January and March 2025, SAPS’ specialised FCS units secured 703 convictions related to GBVF, with 93 offenders receiving life sentences.

Farm Murders and the “Genocide” Misinformation Campaign

Mchunu also tackled head-on the politically charged and widely debunked narrative of “white genocide” in South Africa, a term recently amplified on social media and even in international political discourse.

“There is no genocide in South Africa. These claims are baseless and dangerous,” he said.

According to SAPS data, of the six farm-related murders recorded in the quarter, five of the victims were Black African, and only one was white. “Facts matter. Misrepresenting tragedies to push a racial narrative helps no one,” Mchunu added.

Efforts under the Rural Safety Strategy are being renewed, with an emphasis on improving response in both commercial farming areas and informal settlements.

Economic Crime on the Rise

Not all the news was positive. Commercial crime saw a 4.7% increase, with the bulk of cases concentrated in Gauteng and the Western Cape. These crimes ranged from fraud and cybercrime to large-scale corruption.

Nevertheless, the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation (Hawks) secured over 500 arrests linked to serious organised crime, commercial crime, and corruption.

Weapons, Drug Raids and Major Arrests

Illegal firearms remain a major contributor to violent crime. SAPS reported destroying over 16,000 illegal firearms during the quarter, many of which were seized in targeted operations. More than 24,000 rounds of ammunition were also confiscated.

Commissioner Masemola detailed several large-scale operations, including drug busts, arrest of cash-in-transit syndicates, and the recovery of stolen vehicles. Some 178,000 individuals were arrested during the quarter, including thousands wanted for serious offences.

Cash-in-transit heists, especially in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, continue to pose a challenge, but 39 suspects were arrested, and several vehicles and firearms were recovered.

Restructuring and Technological Reforms

SAPS is undergoing internal reforms aimed at improving its structure and operational efficiency. The current visible policing division is being split into two entities: Visible Policing and Operational Response Services. This restructuring is designed to sharpen the police’s tactical response to emerging threats.

The police service is also investing in forensic capacity and digital tools. A new partnership with the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) is expected to alleviate long-standing backlogs in evidence analysis. Plans to construct a new forensic laboratory in KwaZulu-Natal are now underway after years of delay.

Additionally, 5,500 new recruits are currently in training and expected to graduate by November, helping to bolster police presence on the ground.

Both Mchunu and Masemola cautioned the public against spreading misinformation on social media. They warned of the dangers posed by recycled or fabricated content that misrepresents the country’s crime situation.

“These distorted narratives generate fear, undermine law enforcement, and destabilise social cohesion,” Mchunu warned.

The report also acknowledged the killing of 22 police officers, six of them while on duty. Mchunu described such attacks as “acts against the state,” reiterating SAPS’ resolve to protect its officers and rural communities.

Progress Made, but a Long Road Ahead

The fourth-quarter statistics present a cautiously optimistic outlook: clear gains in tackling violent crime and operational success against syndicates, but persistent weaknesses in areas like sexual violence and economic crime.

“The journey is far from over,” Mchunu concluded. “But we are moving forward. With coordinated action, strong leadership, and public cooperation, we can build a safer South Africa.”

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The week-long operation, overseen by Provincial Commissioners across the country, resulted in the arrest of 2,246 wanted suspects, many of whom were linked to serious and violent crimes such as murder, attempted murder, rape, and house and business robberies. KwaZulu-Natal emerged as a hotspot for violent crime, with 51 suspects arrested for murder and 100 for rape. Assault with intent to cause grievous bodily harm accounted for 1,600 arrests, while 1,613 suspects were taken into custody for drug possession, with the Western Cape recording 812 of these arrests.

Criminal activity involving illegal firearms was also targeted, with 112 suspects arrested for firearm-related offences, including 34 in KwaZulu-Natal alone. Meanwhile, 930 undocumented foreign nationals were detained, and 659 drivers were arrested for drunk driving, with Gauteng recording the highest number of cases.

In addition to the arrests, SAPS confiscated 113 firearms, 3,607 rounds of ammunition, and recovered 61 hijacked or stolen vehicles. Several high-profile operations took place during the week, demonstrating the effectiveness of intelligence-driven policing.

In the Eastern Cape, seven armed suspects were fatally shot in a gunfight with the National Intervention Unit (NIU) on the N2 in Butterworth. The police acted on intelligence about two vehicles transporting firearms from Cofimvaba. When officers attempted to stop the vehicles, the suspects opened fire, leading to a shootout. Four AK-47 rifles and two pistols were recovered at the scene.

In KwaZulu-Natal, a 35-year-old man was arrested for illegal possession of a large quantity of ammunition and a rifle. Acting on a search warrant, police seized an AR style rifle, multiple magazines, and thousands of rounds of ammunition, including 7.62x39mm and 5.56mm rounds. The firearms and ammunition were discovered in Sydenham and Kwadakhaza, further demonstrating the ongoing threat of illegal arms trafficking.

In the Western Cape, two suspects were apprehended for illegal possession of unlicensed firearms. A police search uncovered six rifles hidden inside a vehicle. Meanwhile, at OR Tambo International Airport, two South African nationals were caught smuggling cocaine worth an estimated R7.5 million after arriving on separate flights from Brazil.

In Gauteng, two armed suspects attempted to free a detainee en route to court, leading to a high-speed chase and shootout. The suspects’ vehicle crashed, and two individuals were arrested. A third suspect was rearrested in Elsburg, with a firearm seized at the scene.

In Mpumalanga, police arrested a 49-year-old Somali national and seized illicit cigarettes worth R3.4 million in Middelburg. Officers intercepted an Iveco truck carrying contraband following a tip-off. Operation Shanela has reaffirmed SAPS’s commitment to maintaining law and order through intelligence-led policing and decisive action against crime. Police officials have vowed to continue their operations and assert the authority of the state to ensure the safety and security of all South Africans and visitors.

With ongoing efforts to dismantle criminal networks, seize illegal firearms, and crack down on drug trafficking and organized crime, SAPS remains determined to restore public confidence in law enforcement and create safer communities across the country.

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Despite these positive trends, the Minister noted areas of concern which require urgent intervention. Cases of assault with intent to cause grievous bodily harm and malicious damage to property have increased, disrupting communities and necessitating stronger law enforcement measures. Of particular concern is the rise in attempted murder cases against children aged 0 to 17 years, an alarming development that calls for greater efforts to protect the country’s most vulnerable. While overall contact crimes against women have decreased, rape cases have risen in KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, and the Free State, serving as a reminder that gender-based violence remains a pressing issue requiring intensified interventions.

Murder rates have declined across all provinces, a significant milestone in national crime reduction efforts. However, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal continue to record the highest number of murder cases, contributing 25.0 percent and 21.4 percent respectively, followed by the Eastern Cape at 18.9 percent and the Western Cape at 17.4 percent. Gang violence remains a major issue in the Western Cape, where 263 gang-related murders were reported in the last quarter. Many of these incidents occurred in Bishop Lavis, Mitchells Plain, Kleinvlei, Delft, and Elsies River. The Minister stressed that new approaches are needed to address gang-related violence, as past strategies have failed to produce lasting change. On February 27, a special review will focus on policing in high-murder areas, with particular attention given to firearm-related crimes.

The Minister further addressed concerns regarding ongoing taxi violence and extortion-related murders in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. Mchunu reaffirmed law enforcement’s determination to act decisively against criminals, stating that no individual is above the law. The issue of kidnappings and extortion, many of which are believed to be orchestrated from inside St Albans prison, will also be a focus of the upcoming February 27 discussions in the Portfolio Committee on Police.

The Minister credited proactive policing efforts with contributing to the decline in crime rates. The Safer Festive Season initiative, launched in October 2024, played a significant role in reducing crime through heightened police visibility and targeted operations. Additionally, the Project 10 000 initiative, aimed at expanding the police force, has made progress with the recent recruitment of 5,500 new police trainees. These recruits will undergo rigorous training before being deployed as Constables, strengthening policing efforts and contributing to job creation.

The removal of illegal firearms continues to be a priority. Just this week, authorities destroyed 16,049 illegal firearms under the Firearms Control Act, a measure the Minister said will continue to reduce gun-related violence and ensure safer communities.

While progress has been made, the Minister acknowledged that crime remains a serious challenge. One of the major issues facing law enforcement is the backlog of outstanding dockets, which the government is working to address by securing funding to speed up investigations and prosecutions. Efforts to modernise and strengthen policing will focus on the use of technology, enhancing crime intelligence, bolstering detective and forensic services, and improving working conditions for police officers. Mchunu noted that fraud and corruption remain significant concerns, however the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation is intensifying efforts to combat these crimes and hold perpetrators accountable.

The Minister further emphasised that the fight against crime cannot be left to law enforcement alone. Stronger partnerships with communities, the private sector, and civil society are essential to improving public safety. He urged South Africans to report criminal activities, work closely with the police, and participate in community policing forums. Mchunu additionally commended law enforcement agencies for their recent arrest of a suspect in the Zanzou case, with further arrests expected as investigations continue.

As part of broader efforts to strengthen policing, the government will host a National Policing Summit in April 2025. This summit will take a proactive and holistic approach to law enforcement, addressing systemic challenges and identifying solutions to improve policing in South Africa. The Minister reaffirmed the government’s commitment to ensuring safety and security for all citizens. While progress has been made, he acknowledged that there is still much work to be done and assured the public that efforts to combat crime will continue with determination.

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In the past week alone, SAPS made significant arrests, including 2 907 wanted suspects, many of whom were sought for serious crimes such as murder, attempted murder, rape, and robbery. Among the arrests, 122 suspects were apprehended for murder, with the majority from Gauteng and Eastern Cape. Additionally, 112 suspects were arrested for attempted murder, and 223 for rape, with KwaZulu-Natal recording the highest number. A total of 1 845 individuals were arrested for assault GBH, while 835 drug dealers were taken into custody. Another 2 282 suspects were arrested for drug possession, primarily in the Western Cape. Law enforcement also seized 129 illegal firearms, with the highest number of arrests related to firearms in KwaZulu-Natal.

Under recoveries and confiscations, SAPS seized 129 firearms, 1 129 rounds of ammunition, and recovered 65 hijacked and stolen vehicles. Significant takedowns included the arrest of a 39-year-old man in Mpumalanga linked to a mass shooting that killed eight people, and a joint operation in Sandringham that led to the rescue of 26 Ethiopian nationals held captive. Further successes were seen in operations against illegal mining and organized crime, resulting in multiple arrests across the country.

SAPS remains committed to asserting the authority of the state and ensuring the safety and security of all South Africans and visitors, continuing with its operations to combat crime and restore peace.

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According to Minister Mchunu, a total of 1 075 107 individuals have been arrested as part of the operation, which commenced on 08 May 2023. Of these, 210 693, or approximately 20%, have previous criminal convictions. This statistic highlights the ongoing challenge the SAPS faces in targeting repeat offenders and addressing recidivism in South Africa’s criminal justice system.

The operation, which targets a wide range of criminal activities, has resulted in significant arrests across various categories. The Minister also provided insights into the current status of these arrests:

• 21 104 suspects have been released due to insufficient evidence.
• 386 198 cases are currently before the courts.
• 131 590 suspects have been granted bail.

Among the 1 075 107 arrests, suspects were apprehended for various alleged offenses, with the following categories accounting for the majority of the arrests:

• Dealing in drugs: 27 173 arrests
• Illegal dealing in liquor: 36 751 arrests
• Murder: 11 237 arrests
• Rape: 16 438 arrests
• Assault GBH (Grievous Bodily Harm): 119 991 arrests
• Assault Common: 72 878 arrests
• Residential Burglary: 18 989 arrests
• Malicious Damage to Property: 25 450 arrests
• Driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs: 34 044 arrests
• Illegal migrants: 89 442 arrests
• Wanted suspects: 25 598 arrests
• Other crimes: 157 488 arrests

The total number of arrests in these categories amounts to 635 471, demonstrating the scale of the operation and its focus on tackling various forms of criminal activity.

While the numbers reveal a significant effort to enforce the law, they further present a mixed picture of the fight against crime. The large volume of cases are still pending in court, and the number of suspects released on bail raises questions about the effectiveness of the judicial system in dealing with the arrests.

In a statement, Rise Mzansi expressed its appreciation for the hard work of SAPS officers, acknowledging their daily efforts to ensure the safety and security of South African citizens. However, the organisation has called for a deeper analysis of the operation’s impact on crime reduction and conviction rates.

In an upcoming Portfolio Committee on Police sitting, Rise Mzansi and Gana intend to request a report from SAPS Senior Management on the effectiveness of Operation Shanela in lowering crime rates and improving conviction outcomes. The organisation remains committed to collaborating with the SAPS and local communities, particularly in ensuring the safety of women and children.

Furthermore, Rise Mzansi has emphasised the importance of sustained efforts to combat crime and improve the safety of South African communities. The organization is focused on working alongside law enforcement agencies to build a safer, more secure environment for all South Africans, with a particular focus on the protection of vulnerable groups.

As Operation Shanela continues, the public and policymakers alike will be watching closely for tangible results in the battle against crime.

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The South African Police Service’s (SAPS) annual crime statistics show that in the past decade, kidnappings increased by 264% from 4 692 in 2014/15 to 17 061 in 2023/24. The most recent quarterly crime stats, released on 25 November, show an ongoing rise.

From July to September, the latest period for which there are official crime statistics, a daily average of 50 kidnappings were reported to police – up by nearly 8% compared to the same period in 2023. The risk of kidnapping varies across the country. Gauteng is the most affected province, recording more than half (51%) of all reported incidents, followed by KwaZulu-Natal (20%), Western Cape, and Mpumalanga with 6% each and the Eastern Cape with 5%. The remaining provinces contribute between 1% and 4% each.

But who is most at risk? And in what circumstances do kidnappings occur?

Kidnapping in South Africa has risen by 264% over the last decade, primarily linked to armed robberies

The SAPS Crime Registrar’s office has helped somewhat to answer these questions. They analyse the ‘causative factors’ for kidnappings in each province. Their analysis for the 2023/24 financial year shows that most cases were perpetrated during aggravated robberies, such as car or truck hijackings or armed robberies at businesses, homes, or in public spaces.

These often take the form of ‘express kidnappings’ where victims are kept for a few hours or days to facilitate the theft of their funds, usually held by banks. The victim is held hostage so they can be coerced into drawing money from ATMs or transferring their funds into accounts controlled by the criminals through mobile banking applications.

Kidnapping for ransom often makes headlines, driving the perception that this is a widespread and growing crime. However, less than 5% of all kidnappings reported to police are linked to ransom demands, human trafficking or extortion.

While some of the kidnappings for ransom are orchestrated by sophisticated transnational organised groups specialising in high-value targets, most kidnappings are perpetrated by local crime groups.

Of the 14 646 (86%) cases sampled from the 17 061 kidnappings reported to police, motives could be established in 91% of cases analysed. Aggravated robberies accounted for 66% of all kidnappings, with 44% committed during a hijacking and 22% during another type of robbery.

A further 10% are committed with the intention to perpetrate a sexual assault or rape. Seven percent are associated with retaliation or revenge attacks, often by gangs or rival groups. Kidnapping linked to ransom made about 4%, slightly up from previous periods. Kidnapping for extortion or human trafficking comprised less than 1% of the total.

Gauteng accounts for over 50% of all reported kidnappings, underscoring the province’s high risk

The reason Gauteng recorded the most kidnappings is that it also recorded the highest number of carjackings (49.5% of all hijackings recorded countrywide). Moreover, Gauteng holds 36% of all armed robberies recorded countrywide.

It seems kidnapping has become a key tactic in armed robberies and carjackings. Criminals in this province are more likely to use express kidnappings, as nearly 80% of kidnappings in Gauteng are linked to a hijacking (60%) or another type of robbery (19%).

Robbery-related kidnappings make up the lion’s share of cases in Mpumalanga (63%), KwaZulu-Natal (55%), and North West (55%). In other provinces, robberies contribute between 27% (Limpopo) and 47% (Western Cape) (see chart below).

The 2023/24 annual crime statistics revealed a continued increase in aggravated robbery, though at a slightly lower rate (2.9%) compared to the 10% increase the previous year. Carjacking stabilised with 22 735 cases or 63 cases a day. This amounts to a 78% increase in the past decade. Similarly, 1 976 truck hijackings were recorded – a marginal decline of 19 cases compared to the previous year, but still representing a 54.5% increase over a decade.

The 1 April to 30 September stats showed drops in most violent crime categories, with only serious assaults and attempted murders showing slight increases. Unfortunately, kidnapping is the one exception, with a further 7.6% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This means existing policing approaches are not having an impact on kidnapping despite the well-documented successes of provincial kidnapping task teams for ransom-driven cases.

However, to bring the overall levels of kidnappings down, the SAPS will have to focus on addressing aggravated robberies. As this crime is also behind many murders and attempted murders, getting on top of those who are involved or profit off of aggravated robberies would generally improve overall public safety and fear of crime.

Robberies are committed by relatively few people and can be reduced relatively quickly with focused intelligence-led policing supported by dedicated investigation units and forensics. The Gauteng Aggravated Robbery Strategy implemented from 2009-11 reduced hijackings by 32%, home robberies by 20%, and business robberies by 19% in that period.

Targeted, intelligence-driven policing is key to addressing the rise in kidnapping and aggravated robberies

While politically popular, SAPS high-density and resource-intensive operations such as Operation Shanela are not having the necessary impact on crime. An intelligence-led, focused aggravated robbery strategy that is part of a comprehensive organised crime strategy could guide all law enforcement agencies in the country to play a role.

Such a strategy requires a measurable implementation plan, resources, and a coordinating mechanism. Key organisational and systemic reforms such as those recommended previously by the Institute for Security Studies will be required for such a strategy to work.

Any strategy should focus on identifying and disrupting the individuals, groups, and networks benefitting from armed robberies. Such a strategy should incorporate a focus on tackling firearm crime, as most robberies involve using firearms.

Importantly, SAPS Crime Intelligence must be completely overhauled and corrupt elements removed. And it would need to be subject to much greater levels of accountability from Parliament, the offices of the Inspector-General for Intelligence (which must also be strengthened), and other agencies such as the Auditor-General.

This article has been republished with permission from ISS Today. The original article can be found here.

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Releasing the statistics on 25 November, the Minister emphasised strides made under the 7th Administration, which is working to transform the SAPS into a modern, efficient, and community-centered institution.

From July to September 2024, crime trends began to show a general decline, with serious crimes reducing by 5.1%. Notable decreases were observed in murder, rape, aggravated robbery, and property-related offenses, although attempted murder and assault with intent to cause grievous bodily harm saw slight increases. These mixed results underscore the importance of sustained efforts to address both violent and organized crime, noted the Minister.

Operational successes during this period included dismantling drug laboratories, arresting individuals involved in illegal mining and cash-in-transit heists, and confiscating significant amounts of firearms, ammunition, and drugs. Convictions have also increased, with 265 life sentences issued for serious crimes and substantial penalties for those involved in organized and economic crimes.

Despite these achievements, the Minister stated challenges still persist, including high levels of gender-based violence, organized crime, corruption, and the need for improved forensic and intelligence capabilities. The Ministry has emphasized the importance of harmonizing crime and corruption strategies, focusing on community involvement, and aligning efforts across provincial and national levels.

The Minister stated government is committed to reducing crime and creating safer communities for all South Africans. This will require sustained collaboration across all sectors of society, along with ongoing dedication to addressing the root causes of crime and delivering justice effectively. The shared goal remains clear, believes the Minister, of “a secure, peaceful South Africa where all citizens can thrive without fear.”

The Democratic Alliance, in a statement, noted the improvements achieved by the SAPS, but stated the country still faces high rates of violence, with concerning increases in crimes against women and children. Annual data shows an 8.6% rise in murders of women and a staggering 33.7% rise in attempted murders of children. Further, commercial crime has surged by 18.5%, reflecting the growing prevalence of extortion.

Additionally, the DA praised the success of Operation Shanela, which led to over 260,000 arrests and significant seizures of firearms and drugs and underscores the importance of intelligence-led and high-density policing.

Provinces like Mpumalanga, Gauteng, and Limpopo have made strides against illegal mining, drug manufacturing, and organized crime syndicates. However, gaps in crime intelligence, technology, and forensics remain critical obstacles noted the DA, alongside poor coordination across the criminal justice system and resource disparities among regions.

The DA further called on Minister Mchunu to acknowledge the systemic issues within SAPS management, calling for reforms to address inefficiencies and improve accountability.

The DA continues to call for the devolving of police powers to allow provinces and localized communities to address unique crime challenges more effectively. Emphasis is additionally placed on the enhancement of forensic capabilities, modernizing technology, and tackling the socio-economic drivers of crime to shift from reactive measures to prevention.

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