Ninety-two percent of countries on the continent are characterised as having low resilience to organised crime, with 23 countries affected by what the Index terms “the particularly devastating combination of high criminality and low resilience”.

The most pervasive criminal markets are financial crimes, human trafficking, non-renewable resource crimes, trade in counterfeit goods and arms trafficking.

The AOCI is published by the European Union-funded ENACT programme (Enhancing Africa’s Response to Transnational Organised Crime) – run by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Interpol and the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime (GI-TOC).

Criminal markets show considerable diversity across the continent. East Africa stands out for high human trafficking, arms trafficking and human smuggling. North Africa leads globally in the cannabis trade and ranks second for financial crimes. Non-renewable resource crimes dominate Central Africa, cocaine trade dominates West Africa and wildlife trade is most prevalent in Southern Africa.

State-linked actors drive organised crime in nearly half the African nations, with influence rated “severe” in 48% of countries. Foreign criminal groups pose an increasingly significant threat, particularly in West Africa, reflecting transnational cocaine trafficking and private military companies engaged in illicit activities.

Africa’s digital boom has fuelled a surge in cybercrime, particularly online financial fraud and ransomware, now rising in four of the continent’s five regions.

Criminality thrives in volatile environments. Many countries with the highest criminality scores are plagued by conflict and instability, with a relatively high correlation (0.59) between the Fragile States Index (FSI) and criminality.

Governance has a strong impact on resilience to organised crime, with a strong (0.81) correlation between Africa’s resilience and the Democracy Index (DI). Democratic countries are more resilient in their response, while authoritarian states tend to either embrace organised crime or suppress it with violent crackdowns.

Non-state actors play a vital role in supporting vulnerable communities and holding authorities accountable. Since the 2021 Index, the “non-state actors” resilience indicator declined the most.

“While the findings are concerning, they provide the evidence base needed for effective responses. The data, analysis and recommendations in this report can guide policymakers, researchers and civil society in developing targeted interventions to combat organised crime and strengthen resilience across the continent,” according to Mark Shaw, GI-TOC Executive Director.

“Eight years of data and four issues of the AOCI provide a rich pool of information that gives us an unprecedented overview of illicit economies across the continent. Thanks to the ENACT research programme and our co-operation with the ISS, we have pioneered a methodology for measuring organised crime first in Africa, which has now been scaled up to a Global Organised Crime Index produced every two years,” said Shaw.

Eric Pelser, ENACT Programme Head at the ISS, is on record saying: “This has been an innovative flagship project. Our partnership with GI-TOC has produced in-depth analysis that goes beyond research – we’ve taken the recommendations emanating from the Africa Index to the highest levels of policy-making, ensuring that evidence drives action across the continent”.

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Speaking at the CCPCJ General Debate, Shaw said the increasingly pervasive threat of transnational organised crime and the critical and urgent need for a more strategic response, including through more effective international cooperation and technical assistance – the theme of this year’s session of the commission. 

“There is a growing recognition that the grave threats and harms of transnational organised crime are of epidemic proportions.  This has been recognised in recent months by the Interpol General Assembly, the UN Security Council, and the General Assembly – which has adopted a new International Day on Transnational Organized Crime.” 

It’s time to turn the declarations, statements and resolutions, and the convention itself, into action – for more effect and impact.  

Mark Shaw

“We welcome all of these efforts.  But statements and declarations can only do so much, but at the moment our approach to international cooperation and technical assistance to prevent and counter organised crime can be described as business as usual,” said Shaw.

He said the world has changed since the adoption of the UN Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime (UNTOC) decades ago.

“The threats of organised crime are much more pervasive and causing more harm on a global scale, as well as in specific contemporary security, human rights and environmental crises – despite the widespread ratification of the UNTOC.”

Shaw said GI-TOC’s Global Organized Crime Index showed that 83% of the global population now live in countries with high criminality – up from 79% in 2021. Criminality has continued to grow at a staggering rate.  

“The Index draws a clear link between criminality and conditions of conflict and fragility, contributing to arms flows and associated violence.  But there’s hope too in the Index’s findings. It is clear that good governance practices that are open, transparent, embedded in the rule of law and encourage active engagement from citizens are the basis for more effective responses – including through international cooperation and technical assistance.”    

He said currently there was no way of knowing whether the current approaches were being implemented effectively. 

“Since the beginning of the UNTOC Review Mechanism in 2020 – not a single country review has been published.  And review discussions themselves take place behind closed doors.  There is therefore neither effective sanction nor incentive for states to live up to their commitments under the UNTOC and its core purpose of enhancing international cooperation.”  

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