Ninety-two percent of countries on the continent are characterised as having low resilience to organised crime, with 23 countries affected by what the Index terms “the particularly devastating combination of high criminality and low resilience”.

The most pervasive criminal markets are financial crimes, human trafficking, non-renewable resource crimes, trade in counterfeit goods and arms trafficking.

The AOCI is published by the European Union-funded ENACT programme (Enhancing Africa’s Response to Transnational Organised Crime) – run by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Interpol and the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime (GI-TOC).

Criminal markets show considerable diversity across the continent. East Africa stands out for high human trafficking, arms trafficking and human smuggling. North Africa leads globally in the cannabis trade and ranks second for financial crimes. Non-renewable resource crimes dominate Central Africa, cocaine trade dominates West Africa and wildlife trade is most prevalent in Southern Africa.

State-linked actors drive organised crime in nearly half the African nations, with influence rated “severe” in 48% of countries. Foreign criminal groups pose an increasingly significant threat, particularly in West Africa, reflecting transnational cocaine trafficking and private military companies engaged in illicit activities.

Africa’s digital boom has fuelled a surge in cybercrime, particularly online financial fraud and ransomware, now rising in four of the continent’s five regions.

Criminality thrives in volatile environments. Many countries with the highest criminality scores are plagued by conflict and instability, with a relatively high correlation (0.59) between the Fragile States Index (FSI) and criminality.

Governance has a strong impact on resilience to organised crime, with a strong (0.81) correlation between Africa’s resilience and the Democracy Index (DI). Democratic countries are more resilient in their response, while authoritarian states tend to either embrace organised crime or suppress it with violent crackdowns.

Non-state actors play a vital role in supporting vulnerable communities and holding authorities accountable. Since the 2021 Index, the “non-state actors” resilience indicator declined the most.

“While the findings are concerning, they provide the evidence base needed for effective responses. The data, analysis and recommendations in this report can guide policymakers, researchers and civil society in developing targeted interventions to combat organised crime and strengthen resilience across the continent,” according to Mark Shaw, GI-TOC Executive Director.

“Eight years of data and four issues of the AOCI provide a rich pool of information that gives us an unprecedented overview of illicit economies across the continent. Thanks to the ENACT research programme and our co-operation with the ISS, we have pioneered a methodology for measuring organised crime first in Africa, which has now been scaled up to a Global Organised Crime Index produced every two years,” said Shaw.

Eric Pelser, ENACT Programme Head at the ISS, is on record saying: “This has been an innovative flagship project. Our partnership with GI-TOC has produced in-depth analysis that goes beyond research – we’ve taken the recommendations emanating from the Africa Index to the highest levels of policy-making, ensuring that evidence drives action across the continent”.

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Evidence-based policing (EBP) is an approach that integrates research findings, data analysis and scientific methods into policing practices to identify what works best in preventing and addressing crime. Instead of relying on tradition or instinct, EBP uses rigorous evidence to inform decision-making, ensuring that law enforcement efforts are both effective and efficient.

The keynote address was presented by Lieutenant Colonel Tebogo Mmamabolo of the South African Police Service (SAPS) who leads a subsection dedicated to developing specialised and tactical strategies to enhance street-level policing.

She outlined the achievements and challenges of implementing EBP in South Africa, emphasizing its potential to transform law enforcement. “This initiative aligns with our vision of creating safer and more resilient communities in South Africa,” Mmamabolo stated, underscoring the need to move from reactive policing to proactive, research-informed approaches.

She traced the origins of evidence-based policing in South Africa from 2021, when SAPS launched pilot programs in 12 stations across three provinces. These pilots, she said, provided crucial insights into how data-driven strategies could be implemented on a larger scale.

While the pilots highlighted the potential of evidence-based policing, they also revealed obstacles, including unclear communication, inconsistent engagement and frequent management changes. Mmamabolo was candid about these challenges but stressed their value in shaping future initiatives.

“The pilots emphasised the need for thorough preparation, either through constant meetings or briefing sessions between researchers and stations, to ensure common understanding and that operational members understand what is expected of them,” she explained.

Mmamabolo shared examples of recent successes in high-crime areas like Khayelitsha, Delft and Nyanga, where partnerships with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) tested innovative crime-prevention methods. For instance, shorter, unpredictable patrols helped reduce violent crime while also deterring potential offenders.

Looking forward, Mmamabolo announced that evidence-based policing would be integrated into SAPS’s strategic plans for 2025–2030. The phased rollout will begin in the Western Cape next year, with plans to expand nationwide. To prioritise resources more effectively, SAPS is also developing a Crime Harm Index that focuses on crimes with the highest societal impact.

“An important message that we as the South African Police Service take from our evidence-based colleagues is that policing is not an exclusive responsibility, but rather inclusive of the whole civil society,” Mmamabolo concluded, urging researchers, community leaders and civil society to work together in creating sustainable solutions.

The conference featured several expert presentations that broadened the conversation about evidence-based crime prevention. Professor Gregory Breetzke emphasized the importance of spatial analysis in understanding crime patterns. His research revealed that crime often clusters in specific neighbourhoods or even individual streets, challenging the perception of its widespread distribution. However, he noted that South Africa’s crime mapping efforts face significant challenges, including outdated data systems and a lack of granularity. “Addressing these gaps is essential to understanding and preventing crime effectively,” Breetzke argued.

Professor Tshimangadzo Magadze brought attention to rural crime prevention, highlighting how theories like Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) are often tailored to urban contexts and neglect rural areas. He discussed how poor infrastructure, lack of lighting and inadequate police presence contribute to rural crime and called for innovative solutions such as drones, community education and infrastructural improvements like defensible space designs. Magadze also emphasized the importance of engaging local communities in these efforts to ensure sustainability.

Dr Guy Lamb’s presentation shed light on the complex dynamics of policing spaza shops, particularly in areas with large immigrant populations. His research revealed that community-driven efforts often outperform traditional policing in reducing tensions and violence in these spaces. Lamb pointed out that xenophobic violence, extortion and mistrust of law enforcement remain significant challenges, but building trust between police, shop owners and local communities could help address these issues more effectively.

Another critical topic was Cash-In-Transit (CIT) robberies, which Dr Alice Maree highlighted as a growing threat to South Africa’s economy and public safety. Maree presented an analysis of CIT crime patterns and prevention strategies, including cross-industry collaborations, technology upgrades and vehicle modifications. While she reported some success in reducing incidents and increasing convictions, she called for the creation of a national CIT task team to better combat organised crime syndicates responsible for these robberies.

Dr John Modise stressed the importance of a unified approach to combating violent crime. He called for stronger coordination among SAPS, local governments, private security companies and community structures. Collaboration, he says, is essential not just to respond to crime but to address its root causes, such as poverty, drug abuse and social inequality. Modise advocated for targeted interventions focused on youth and vulnerable populations, as well as evidence-based strategies to guide resource allocation and policymaking.

The Evidence-Based Policing South Africa Conference underscored the potential of data-driven strategies to reshape South African law enforcement. As Mmamabolo reminded the audience, collaboration and shared responsibility can transform the future of policing in South Africa.

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The emphasis on police visibility raises an important question: could simply increasing police patrols on the streets play a part in curbing South Africa’s crime crisis?

As a strategy, ramping up the presence of police through patrols is far from new – and can be problematic. It has been a foundational element of visible policing in South Africa for decades. However, the effectiveness of this approach is still up for debate.

At first glance, strengthening police visibility through more patrols seems an obvious and necessary means to reduce crime. A higher police presence should, after all, act as a deterrent while providing the public with a greater sense of safety.

But without a strategic framework guiding these efforts, the results may be underwhelming. Simply adding more officers without a clear focus generally wastes valuable resources and is unlikely to keep crime levels down in the medium term.

To make visible patrols effective, South Africa needs to adopt a focused approach driven by data analysis. This is where evidence-based policing (EBP) comes into play. EBP uses data, research and proven strategies to inform police operations. In addition to relying on traditional policing practices or individual experience or intuition, EBP stresses the need to monitor and test interventions to assess their ability to reduce crime.

EBP studies have shown that some visible patrols – especially in urban areas – are more effective than others. For example, EBP experiments in the United States suggest that increased random patrols have little, if any, impact on crime. In contrast, targeted data-driven patrols are more effective.

A policing intervention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, found that targeted police foot patrols in specific hot spots saw greater crime reductions compared to control areas. A hotspot operation in Sacramento, California, which involved police carrying out frequent 15-minute foot patrols on high crime streets, showed similar results.

These studies suggest that by using crime data to pinpoint hotspots down to street and block level, police can be deployed to areas where they are most needed, ensuring their resources are used efficiently. However, more research is needed in countries like South Africa, where crime overlaps with acute social, economic and infrastructural challenges.

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) recently piloted EBP hotspot policing projects in Mitchells Plain, Delft, Khayelitsha, Nyanga and Gugulethu in Cape Town. The trial involved SAPS and Law Enforcement Advancement Plan (LEAP) patrollers from the Western Cape Government and City of Cape Town. The evaluation is ongoing, but tentative findings show positive effects on violent crime levels in the hotspots.

The project offers a glimpse into what a more sophisticated approach to visible policing might look like in South Africa. It is not just about deploying more officers and resources on the streets. Instead, research and evidence must be used to understand where they are needed, how they can be most effective, and what effect their presence is actually having.

While visible patrols can work under these conditions, over-surveillance is a significant concern. Even the best data-driven police strategies will fall short if efforts to improve community relations are neglected. People living and working in areas subjected to constant police surveillance often feel criminalised, and this can foster distrust between residents and law enforcement.

This happened in the United States, where over-policing in minority neighbourhoods in three Michigan cities led to feelings of alienation and resentment. This is relevant in South Africa, where levels of confidence in the police are low. Without attempts to engage and build trust with communities, over-surveillance could backfire, making people feel less secure and resentful towards law enforcement.

South Africa must avoid a one-dimensional approach to visible policing. Instead, a greater police presence must be informed by evidence-based methods to direct resources effectively. This involves using international experience on targeted patrols when designing hotspot operations, and monitoring their impact closely.

Interventions must also foster genuine trust within communities. In Bogota, for example, police combined intensive operations with municipal services projects to improve perceptions of police legitimacy. This approach delivered a 45.6% greater decrease in reported crimes in the hotspots than in the control areas.

Without these vital components, visible patrols may not work and could even backfire. By aligning policing strategies with data-driven insights and actively working with communities, South Africa can achieve a more effective and equitable approach to reducing crime.

Written by the Institute for Security Studies and republished with permission. The original article can be found here.

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This comes after the recent plea by Fivaz to the Government of National Unity (GNU) to urgently address the decline within the SAPS.

It is of vital strategic importance that the SAPS focuses on reducing the murder rate and substantially raises the service quality of its 1 169 stations across South Africa as a starting point for change in policing. The ISS restructuring call comes after ongoing reports about police involvement in crime, and ongoing organisational challenges highlighted by the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Police and the Auditor-General.

According to policing expert Gareth Newham, Head of the ISS Justice and Violence Prevention Programme, a wide variety of SAPS indicators from their Annual Reports to Parliament show an ongoing decline in key performance areas going back to 2012.

This includes an over 60% decline in the detection or solving rate of murder dockets.  In 2012, the SAPS was able to solve over 31% of murder dockets, but by 2023 this had dropped only 12.4%.

Thus the vast majority of murders went unsolved that year and, as the ability to solve murder dockets decreased, so did the murder rate increase over the same period. By 2023, the number of murders was 78% higher than the number recorded in 2012, said Newham.

The case for urgent action by the SAPS was thus clear, with Newham saying the extent of decline across the various capabilities of the organisation could not be ignored and needed to be addressed decisively.

Despite the first signs of organisational decline in 2013, SAPS management systems and structures were not able to ensure they were addressed. This had partly to do with what the 2012 National Development Plan termed, the “serial crises of top management” – during the state capture years, there was a high level of political interference in top management structures.

Police Ministers and SAPS National Commissioners were changed every couple of years with criminality and corruption reaching the highest levels of the organisation.  Former SAPS National Commissioner, Khomotso Phahlane, along with a deputy national commissioner, former provincial commissioners and other former senior officials are facing charges of corruption. Former Head of Crime Intelligence Richard Mdluli has already served prison time for violent crimes including kidnapping and is facing prosecution for corruption.

“Unless there is a fundamental overhaul of the senior management structure and its systems, to ensure measurable improvements in capability and accountability across the SAPS,  it is unlikely we will see any notable changes in the GNU’s present term,” said Newham.

There are many excellent men and women in the SAPS at all levels, but the organisational culture and systems do not enable them to achieving the SAPS constitutional mandate, Newham said.

Ongoing challenges

There are a number of warning signs that the SAPS needs to be reformed, such as the VIP Protection Unit accounting for R2 billion in annual costs, excluding hundreds of millions of Rands claimed in overtime;

The departure of trained specialists and detectives from the SAPS (the SAPS lost 11% of its personnel between 2012 and 2021 as it could not afford to replace those who left);

A dysfunctional Crime Intelligence department;

And a large number of firearms losses: 28 969 SAPS-issued firearms were reported lost or stolen between 2003 and 2023 and between April and November 2023 alone, 357 firearms were stolen from SAPS 13 stores – which could only happen with police involvement.

Speaking about factions and personal agendas, Newham said the “shadow counter-culture within the SAPS means it is simply not realistic for a Minister of Police and National Commissioner to think that they are in control of the organisation. Policies and instructions are often ignored by many in the command structure,  which is why the complete restructuring of SAPS is necessary.”

In short, the SAPS could already be regarded as non-directable in any meaningful policy or operational sense, said both Newham and Fivaz.

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