Mchunu has prioritised ensuring greater cooperation on safety in the metro areas. In the past six months, the Cape Town, Ekurhuleni, Johannesburg and eThekwini metros have all signed cooperation agreements with the SAPS. Provincial governments are co-signatories.

For these initiatives to strengthen policing and public safety, they must also tackle endemic corruption by traffic police, who account for over 40% of police personnel in each of these metros (with the SAPS making up the balance).

Police officials reporting to most metropolitan and provincial governments are essentially traffic police. For example, in Gauteng’s three metros (Ekurhuleni, Johannesburg and Tshwane), agencies involved in policing (besides the SAPS) include the metropolitan police departments (one in each metro), Gauteng Traffic Police and Gauteng Traffic Wardens. (‘Gauteng Traffic Wardens’ is the current title of the Crime Prevention Wardens established in 2023.) Apart from the SAPS, the primary function of all these agencies is traffic enforcement.

For cooperation between SAPS and metros to work, they must tackle endemic corruption by traffic police

The metros are a magnet for corruption-oriented traffic police partly because they are where most traffic is concentrated. This includes much of the private-public transport provided by the minibus taxi industry, a principal target for corrupt traffic officers.

National victimisation surveys have repeatedly identified traffic police as the government service most strongly associated with graft (see table). The 2022/23 Stats SA Governance, Public Safety and Justice Survey revealed that more traffic officials than any other government officials asked individuals for bribes in 2019/20 and 2022/23.

Soliciting bribes is deeply embedded in traffic policing in South Africa. Six of the nine national surveys conducted since 2003 that asked about bribery, identified traffic police as the government service most frequently linked to corruption.

Traffic policing corruption reported in South African national victimisation surveys Source: Source: NVCS – National Victims of Crime Survey; GPSJS – Governance, Public Safety and Justice Survey. Surveys from 2010 onwards conducted by Stats SA

Based on current population figures and recent Statistics SA surveys, it may be estimated that roughly 870 000 people in South Africa had bribes solicited from them by traffic police in 2024 (2% of the adult population).

SAPS corruption also features prominently in Stats SA survey results. But the findings show that graft linked to traffic policing is the most brazen form of police corruption in South Africa.

Other forms of corruption that tend to be associated with the SAPS, such as the sale of dockets, or revealing complainants’ identity to gang lords, are more serious as individual incidents. But the cumulative impact of rampant corruption by metro police and other agencies involved in traffic policing, tarnishes the name of all police in the country.

A major study of traffic policing in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s capital Kinshasa found that police revenue from bribes far exceeded that from traffic fines. The study also showed that traffic policing corruption ‘operates as a coordinated system rather than as isolated acts of individual misconduct.’

The level of graft in traffic policing in South Africa suggests that these findings may also be relevant here.

Surveys consistently identify traffic police as the government service most strongly linked with corruption

Agencies involved in investigating police corruption include the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation (Hawks), the SAPS and the Independent Police Investigative Directorate. But there is little coordination between them, and none pays sustained attention to corrupt traffic law enforcement. Some metros or traffic police departments have their own integrity units – but there is little evidence of their efficacy.

In recommendations on strengthening the SAPS released in June 2024, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) called for SAPS to establish a ‘well-resourced National Anti-Corruption Unit that is protected from interference.’ It said this unit should address police corruption ‘in all policing agencies’ – which would include traffic police. The ISS also called for dedicated disciplinary measures to expedite cases involving allegations of serious police misconduct.

Mchunu’s efforts to improve cooperation among law enforcement entities in the metropolitan areas are necessary and important. In Gauteng, the three metros account for 84% of community-reported serious crime in the province. In the Western Cape, the City of Cape Town accounts for 64%.

Purposeful steps are needed to restore public respect for the police – including SAPS, metro and other officers

The metros are the engine rooms of South Africa’s economy – so they must be much safer. That requires partnerships not only between law enforcement entities but also between the police, public and private sector. Corruption, including by traffic police, undermines prospects for viable partnerships.

Section 205(1) of the Constitution allows SAPS to be present at metro level, and metro command structures have recently been introduced in line with the district development model. But SAPS remains primarily built around national and provincial levels of command, and struggles to ensure effective metropolitan-level coordination of its own resources.

Related to this, there is currently no effective mechanism for ensuring coordinated use of policing personnel in the metros. In each metropolitan area, a mechanism is needed to coordinate national, provincial and local government police and law enforcement resources. Partnerships are unlikely to work well unless responsibility for overall leadership is clear.

But all the work required to coordinate these resources will be of limited value unless purposeful steps are taken to restore public respect for the police – including SAPS, metro and other officers. This cannot be done without confronting endemic corruption in traffic law enforcement, a problem that is most pronounced in metropolitan areas.

This article was republished with permission from ISS Africa, the original article can be found here.

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The event is scheduled for 25 February 2025 at the Pretoria Country Club.

The discussion aims to explore the latest advancements in Ukrainian unmanned systems and their potential to enhance security across Africa. Key speakers include:

• Denys Riva (Institute for Security Studies) – The Future of African Maritime Security: Threats, Priorities, and Uncrewed Solutions.
• Viktor Listopadov (SpetsTechnoExport Regional Director) – Insights into the Magura V5 Unmanned Surface Vessel.
• Mike Tkachenko (ABRIS) – The Role of UAVs on the Modern Battlefield and Proven Solutions for African Security.

With increasing security challenges across Africa, the discussion will highlight how innovative unmanned technologies can support regional stability, border control, and maritime security. Experts and industry leaders will explore strategic collaborations between Ukraine and African Nations in defence technology.

This event presents a unique opportunity for policymakers, defence officials, and security experts to gain insights into cutting-edge solutions for modern warfare and security challenges.

Developed in Ukraine, the Magura V5 is a multi-purpose unmanned surface vessel designed for a range of operations, including surveillance, reconnaissance, patrolling, search and rescue, mine countermeasures, maritime security, and combat missions. The vessel measures 5.5 meters in length, weighs less than 1,000 kilograms, and can carry an explosive payload of up to 200 kilograms. It boasts an operational range of up to 800 kilometres and a maximum speed of 78 km/h. The Magura V5 has been actively utilised by the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) and has demonstrated significant effectiveness in naval engagements.

ABRIS is a Ukrainian company specialising in the development of full-cycle unmanned systems adhering to the highest standards. With facilities in Poland and Ukraine, in-house IT teams, and certified global operators, ABRIS provides comprehensive solutions tailored to diverse mission requirements. ABRIS solutions include certified full-cycle unmanned systems, dedicated facilities and services, specialised software development teams, and a fleet of certified operators and UAVs for global missions.

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Mass killings have wreaked havoc in numerous South African communities in recent months. Along with the devastating murder of 18 people in Lusikisiki in the Eastern Cape province on 28 September, other attacks have taken a heavy toll on human life.

These occurred in places as disparate as Qumbu, Bityi and Tsolo in the Eastern Cape, Bishop Lavis and Atlantis in the Western Cape, Orange Farm in Gauteng province and Orkney in North West province.

We don’t know the exact reasons for each of these incidents. But there can be no doubt that the widespread availability of firearms to those involved in crime makes mass killings more possible and more likely.

These killings are one of many reasons the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), in a new policy brief, is calling for the South African Police Service (SAPS) to develop an integrated strategy to reduce firearm crime. This should ensure clear and measurable reductions in all categories of crime associated with the use of guns.

Mass killings have become an embedded feature of violence in South Africa. The number of people killed in Lusikisiki is slightly higher than the death toll at the Mdlalose Tavern shooting in Soweto in July 2022, when 16 people were killed. In April 2023, 10 family members died in a single shooting incident in Imbali in Pietermaritzburg, KwaZulu-Natal province.

Mass killings have reached unprecedented levels in South Africa since the early 1990s. SAPS data for July-September 2023 showed 125 people killed in incidents with four or more deaths. Recently released data compiled by Gun Free South Africa showed a similar number had been murdered in shootings of four or more people in the past three months.

Firearms are crime enablers and violence multipliers. They make a massive contribution to crime-related deaths, injury and fear in South Africa. Police data indicates that guns were used in 12 000 to 16 000 murders in South Africa over the 2023/24 year. There were also between 17 000 and 20 000 cases of attempted murder, where people sustained non-fatal firearm injuries.

The severity and complexity of many of these injuries place an enormous burden on the healthcare system. Inga Mkoko, who was 25 at the time of the Mdlalose tavern shooting, spent three weeks in intensive care and six months in hospital. He had both legs amputated and lost four fingers.

Notwithstanding the large number of firearm-related deaths and injuries, guns are mostly used to threaten victims without the weapons being fired. Fear of firearms makes them the favoured instrument for coercion in robberies, extortion and some incidents of rape. They also play a major role in taxi violence and violent organised crimes such as extortion and conflict between gangs involved in the illegal drugs or mining trade.

The fact that criminals have the capacity to use equivalent levels of force to the police directly undermines the state’s ability to exercise authority. Virtually all killings of SAPS members are with firearms.

The SAPS must focus on reducing firearm crime. But it cannot do so using its established approach that relies mainly on the recovery of illegal firearms.

A key element is making optimal use of available data. As a starting point, police should use crime statistics to identify the areas where most firearm crime occurs. The recently released ISS policy brief illustrates how this can be done.

The SAPS should be able, quite easily, to map firearm crime. Effective mapping is vital to ensuring that police resources are deployed in a precise way, targeted at the groups involved and places where it’s occurring.

Beyond mapping, the SAPS should invest in strengthening information management systems to synthesise information on firearm crime. This includes crime reports, ballistic data, interviews with suspects, victims and witnesses, and details from sources in the community.

This process, along with crime investigation, should then be used to identify, arrest and prosecute perpetrators of firearm crime. This approach can also dramatically improve our understanding of where guns used in crime are coming from. Tracing the source of these weapons would allow for proactive interventions to close loopholes that enable criminal access to firearms.

Recovery of illegal firearms is not enough. South Africa needs a practical firearm reduction strategy that provides for collaboration between appropriate state, private sector and civil society role players. There is knowledge and experience of firearm crime reduction in South Africa and internationally that SAPS can draw on.

Effective implementation of an integrated firearm crime reduction strategy should be an exercise in learning how a more effective SAPS can work. Without it, gun crime is likely to continue devastating many families and communities.

Read the ISS policy brief ‘Targeting firearm crime will make South Africa safer’ by David Bruce, here.

Republished with permission from ISS Today, the original article can be found here.

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The South African Police Service’s (SAPS) annual crime statistics show that in the past decade, kidnappings increased by 264% from 4 692 in 2014/15 to 17 061 in 2023/24. The most recent quarterly crime stats, released on 25 November, show an ongoing rise.

From July to September, the latest period for which there are official crime statistics, a daily average of 50 kidnappings were reported to police – up by nearly 8% compared to the same period in 2023. The risk of kidnapping varies across the country. Gauteng is the most affected province, recording more than half (51%) of all reported incidents, followed by KwaZulu-Natal (20%), Western Cape, and Mpumalanga with 6% each and the Eastern Cape with 5%. The remaining provinces contribute between 1% and 4% each.

But who is most at risk? And in what circumstances do kidnappings occur?

Kidnapping in South Africa has risen by 264% over the last decade, primarily linked to armed robberies

The SAPS Crime Registrar’s office has helped somewhat to answer these questions. They analyse the ‘causative factors’ for kidnappings in each province. Their analysis for the 2023/24 financial year shows that most cases were perpetrated during aggravated robberies, such as car or truck hijackings or armed robberies at businesses, homes, or in public spaces.

These often take the form of ‘express kidnappings’ where victims are kept for a few hours or days to facilitate the theft of their funds, usually held by banks. The victim is held hostage so they can be coerced into drawing money from ATMs or transferring their funds into accounts controlled by the criminals through mobile banking applications.

Kidnapping for ransom often makes headlines, driving the perception that this is a widespread and growing crime. However, less than 5% of all kidnappings reported to police are linked to ransom demands, human trafficking or extortion.

While some of the kidnappings for ransom are orchestrated by sophisticated transnational organised groups specialising in high-value targets, most kidnappings are perpetrated by local crime groups.

Of the 14 646 (86%) cases sampled from the 17 061 kidnappings reported to police, motives could be established in 91% of cases analysed. Aggravated robberies accounted for 66% of all kidnappings, with 44% committed during a hijacking and 22% during another type of robbery.

A further 10% are committed with the intention to perpetrate a sexual assault or rape. Seven percent are associated with retaliation or revenge attacks, often by gangs or rival groups. Kidnapping linked to ransom made about 4%, slightly up from previous periods. Kidnapping for extortion or human trafficking comprised less than 1% of the total.

Gauteng accounts for over 50% of all reported kidnappings, underscoring the province’s high risk

The reason Gauteng recorded the most kidnappings is that it also recorded the highest number of carjackings (49.5% of all hijackings recorded countrywide). Moreover, Gauteng holds 36% of all armed robberies recorded countrywide.

It seems kidnapping has become a key tactic in armed robberies and carjackings. Criminals in this province are more likely to use express kidnappings, as nearly 80% of kidnappings in Gauteng are linked to a hijacking (60%) or another type of robbery (19%).

Robbery-related kidnappings make up the lion’s share of cases in Mpumalanga (63%), KwaZulu-Natal (55%), and North West (55%). In other provinces, robberies contribute between 27% (Limpopo) and 47% (Western Cape) (see chart below).

The 2023/24 annual crime statistics revealed a continued increase in aggravated robbery, though at a slightly lower rate (2.9%) compared to the 10% increase the previous year. Carjacking stabilised with 22 735 cases or 63 cases a day. This amounts to a 78% increase in the past decade. Similarly, 1 976 truck hijackings were recorded – a marginal decline of 19 cases compared to the previous year, but still representing a 54.5% increase over a decade.

The 1 April to 30 September stats showed drops in most violent crime categories, with only serious assaults and attempted murders showing slight increases. Unfortunately, kidnapping is the one exception, with a further 7.6% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This means existing policing approaches are not having an impact on kidnapping despite the well-documented successes of provincial kidnapping task teams for ransom-driven cases.

However, to bring the overall levels of kidnappings down, the SAPS will have to focus on addressing aggravated robberies. As this crime is also behind many murders and attempted murders, getting on top of those who are involved or profit off of aggravated robberies would generally improve overall public safety and fear of crime.

Robberies are committed by relatively few people and can be reduced relatively quickly with focused intelligence-led policing supported by dedicated investigation units and forensics. The Gauteng Aggravated Robbery Strategy implemented from 2009-11 reduced hijackings by 32%, home robberies by 20%, and business robberies by 19% in that period.

Targeted, intelligence-driven policing is key to addressing the rise in kidnapping and aggravated robberies

While politically popular, SAPS high-density and resource-intensive operations such as Operation Shanela are not having the necessary impact on crime. An intelligence-led, focused aggravated robbery strategy that is part of a comprehensive organised crime strategy could guide all law enforcement agencies in the country to play a role.

Such a strategy requires a measurable implementation plan, resources, and a coordinating mechanism. Key organisational and systemic reforms such as those recommended previously by the Institute for Security Studies will be required for such a strategy to work.

Any strategy should focus on identifying and disrupting the individuals, groups, and networks benefitting from armed robberies. Such a strategy should incorporate a focus on tackling firearm crime, as most robberies involve using firearms.

Importantly, SAPS Crime Intelligence must be completely overhauled and corrupt elements removed. And it would need to be subject to much greater levels of accountability from Parliament, the offices of the Inspector-General for Intelligence (which must also be strengthened), and other agencies such as the Auditor-General.

This article has been republished with permission from ISS Today. The original article can be found here.

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Speaking at the Border Management Conference and Expo in Pretoria on 13 November, Else said that the real threat of terrorism in South Africa has been an open question for a very long time because no real empirical research has been done into this area. Nevertheless, he has identified three major terror threats in South Africa. The first is right wing extremist groups, but “that situation is more or less under control as those groups have been monitored quite effectively.” The leaders of the National Christian Resistance Movement aka ‘Crusaders’ right-wing organisation have been imprisoned, for example.

The second, and far more serious, challenge is the Islamist extremist threat. In places like Mayfair, Soweto, the East Rand, and Hillbrow, “we picked up a lot of radicalisation taking place especially at madrasas, especially where they are indoctrinating children as young as 11. This is ongoing and sustained. If we don’t deal with this in its early stages, it might get out of hand,” Els warned.

Another major concern is terrorism funding. Over a year ago South Africa received a “wakeup call” when the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey listed South Africa because of the country’s less than adequate addressing of the threat of money laundering and terror funding. The country is making efforts to get off the grey list and may come off it next year following another audit.

“Why is South Africa attractive for terror funding? Infrastructure and an advanced banking system make moving funds easy,” Els explained, adding that the high crime rate makes it easy to generate illicit funding; high levels of corruption enable actors to operate with impunity; and terror groups work closely with organised crime. South Africa is investigating some 20 cases of terror funding as part of getting off the grey list, Els said.

South Africa is not alone on the grey list – out of the other countries within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Namibia, and Tanzania are also on the grey list.

Growing terrorism in Africa

The rise in Islamist extremist should be seen in the context of increasing terrorism on the continent. According to the Institute for Economics and Peace’s latest Global Terrorism Index, the epicentre of terrorism has moved from the Middle East to Africa, with Burkina Faso taking the top spot in terms of terror activity – Mali is number three on the global list, and Somalia 7, while Nigeria is ranked 8. Multiple terror groups are active in Africa, including Boko Haram, JNIM, Al Shabaab, Islamic State, and ADF. Terrorism deaths are now considerably higher in sub-Saharan Africa than in any other region.

Els said that South Africa is ranked at 89 on the list only because the Index measures attacks, but a lot of funding leaves South Africa for Somalia where it goes to Syria, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Mozambique. Kenya is also a terror finance hotbed.

Tighter border security needed

“Borders are the weak underbelly of the South African system. If we do not mange it, it could become the main conduit,” Els said. Weak and under-resourced borders are “making us more vulnerable to terrorism. Terrorists are exploiting this.” He cited an example of the Lebombo port of entry with Mozambique. Taxi drivers regularly stop before the border post, drop passengers who run through holes in the border fence, and pick up the passengers after they have crossed into Mozambique. “Only the driver is processed. The rest of the passengers walk around the border post.”

Across the border in Mozambique, Els said when the insurgency in Cabo Delgado got going in 2017, recruits from South Africa, Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda flocked there. Mozambique’s weak response means terrorists are still active, with insurgents having a free hand outside the green zones around Pemba, Palma, and Mocimboa da Praia.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique recently withdrew to focus on the DRC, leaving “a huge void” in addressing and countering the threat. Els noted that protests against the government following a disputed election have contributed to the anarchy in Cabo Delgado and a rise in attacks.

“It’s open knowledge there’s a constant flow of money and people from South Africa to Mozambique. I interviewed Cabo Delgado immigration officials and they said they have 21 South Africans fighting there,” Els said, but that’s not all of them.

“Why are borders the weakest link? if we don’t contain and counter, the problem could erupt,” Els told the conference. Outside threats to South Africa include Islamic State recruitment and radicalisation, and terror groups mobilising logistics in South Africa. However, the elephant in the room is corruption and compromised actors that are facilitating porous borders, such as corruption immigration and Home Affairs officials that allow illegal immigrants to move across, or provide false documentation. Lack of effective cooperation with neighbouring countries is also something of a concern when it comes to border security, Els said.

Other concerns he highlighted include under-resourced agencies, weak intelligence, weak crime combating capability (which is reflected in crime statistics), and weak investigation capacity (there is currently aa shortage of 8 000 detectives in South Africa).

“Law enforcement is doing a great job given the circumstances. We are on the back foot due to resources, capacity and skills. Intelligence capacity in South Africa is lacking and the FATF addressed this in their assessment of South Africa.”

Recommendations

Els provided a list of recommendations towards addressing South Africa’s terrorism challenges. “The South African Counter-Terrorism Strategy is classified. We need to develop a more holistic approach towards that,” he said. He also called for regular updates to the strategy as well as the political will to deal with foreign terror groups.

Terror funding and money laundering should be continuously targeted. “Capacity building is essential. Our skills deficit is moving from the state to the private sector.” Other recommendations are more countries implement the SADC Transnational Organised Crime Strategy and SADC Counter-Terrorism Strategy, and South Africa develop a proactive rather than reactive approach to terrorism.

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This comes after the recent plea by Fivaz to the Government of National Unity (GNU) to urgently address the decline within the SAPS.

It is of vital strategic importance that the SAPS focuses on reducing the murder rate and substantially raises the service quality of its 1 169 stations across South Africa as a starting point for change in policing. The ISS restructuring call comes after ongoing reports about police involvement in crime, and ongoing organisational challenges highlighted by the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Police and the Auditor-General.

According to policing expert Gareth Newham, Head of the ISS Justice and Violence Prevention Programme, a wide variety of SAPS indicators from their Annual Reports to Parliament show an ongoing decline in key performance areas going back to 2012.

This includes an over 60% decline in the detection or solving rate of murder dockets.  In 2012, the SAPS was able to solve over 31% of murder dockets, but by 2023 this had dropped only 12.4%.

Thus the vast majority of murders went unsolved that year and, as the ability to solve murder dockets decreased, so did the murder rate increase over the same period. By 2023, the number of murders was 78% higher than the number recorded in 2012, said Newham.

The case for urgent action by the SAPS was thus clear, with Newham saying the extent of decline across the various capabilities of the organisation could not be ignored and needed to be addressed decisively.

Despite the first signs of organisational decline in 2013, SAPS management systems and structures were not able to ensure they were addressed. This had partly to do with what the 2012 National Development Plan termed, the “serial crises of top management” – during the state capture years, there was a high level of political interference in top management structures.

Police Ministers and SAPS National Commissioners were changed every couple of years with criminality and corruption reaching the highest levels of the organisation.  Former SAPS National Commissioner, Khomotso Phahlane, along with a deputy national commissioner, former provincial commissioners and other former senior officials are facing charges of corruption. Former Head of Crime Intelligence Richard Mdluli has already served prison time for violent crimes including kidnapping and is facing prosecution for corruption.

“Unless there is a fundamental overhaul of the senior management structure and its systems, to ensure measurable improvements in capability and accountability across the SAPS,  it is unlikely we will see any notable changes in the GNU’s present term,” said Newham.

There are many excellent men and women in the SAPS at all levels, but the organisational culture and systems do not enable them to achieving the SAPS constitutional mandate, Newham said.

Ongoing challenges

There are a number of warning signs that the SAPS needs to be reformed, such as the VIP Protection Unit accounting for R2 billion in annual costs, excluding hundreds of millions of Rands claimed in overtime;

The departure of trained specialists and detectives from the SAPS (the SAPS lost 11% of its personnel between 2012 and 2021 as it could not afford to replace those who left);

A dysfunctional Crime Intelligence department;

And a large number of firearms losses: 28 969 SAPS-issued firearms were reported lost or stolen between 2003 and 2023 and between April and November 2023 alone, 357 firearms were stolen from SAPS 13 stores – which could only happen with police involvement.

Speaking about factions and personal agendas, Newham said the “shadow counter-culture within the SAPS means it is simply not realistic for a Minister of Police and National Commissioner to think that they are in control of the organisation. Policies and instructions are often ignored by many in the command structure,  which is why the complete restructuring of SAPS is necessary.”

In short, the SAPS could already be regarded as non-directable in any meaningful policy or operational sense, said both Newham and Fivaz.

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South Africa is a country plagued by violent crime. Media headlines of murders, kidnappings and sexual violence are backed up by the country’s crime data. The Institute for Security Studies’ (ISS) recent call for policing reforms describes how the South African Police Service’s (SAPS) track record has measurably declined since 2012, with crimes such as murder increasing and public perceptions of safety falling.

But in Cape Town, one form of violent crime is bucking this trend and showing a consistent and significant decline. Business robberies, which initially rose in the early 2000s, have been falling markedly over the past decade, as reflected by ISS Crime Hub data.

Business robberies differ from crimes such as burglary because they entail violence or the threat thereof. In Cape Town, business robberies started increasing in 2006 when reported cases surged from 99 to 1 656 cases in 2014/15. This crime wave comprised an increase of well over 1 000% in a decade.

But since 2015 the trend has reversed. Reported business robberies dropped by over a third to 1 036 in 2022/23. This decrease is even more noticeable in many of the city’s townships. Business robberies in Khayelitsha fell from 143 to 24 cases between 2012/13 and 2022/23. Similar marked declines occurred in many of Cape Town’s other township areas such as Gugulethu, Nyanga, Harare and Philippi East.

What is behind this drop, and why should we be concerned rather than celebrate? There could be many explanations. Reduced reporting rates, rather than actual crime, could contribute to lower numbers recorded by police, or declines could be linked to possible lower levels of general criminality.

However, another possible explanation exists for falling business robberies. In South Africa overall, those who commit these crimes disproportionately target foreign nationals. A 2015 SAPS docket analysis found that foreign nationals comprised around 47.6% of victims nationally (but made up 4.2% of the general population). Somalis, Ethiopians and Bangladeshis were targeted, many of whom ran small businesses in townships. These traders have for years experienced violent and sometimes deadly and repeated attacks on their businesses, usually with impunity.

Many foreign-operated businesses in Cape Town’s townships have fallen victim to extortion networks. A 2021 Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime report describes how numerous Somali traders in Cape Town had for years refused to pay extortion fees, which often cost them their lives. Eventually, however, a desire to avoid further bloodshed led to a change in approach.

A Somali community leader described in the report that after many deadly attacks in 2017, Khayelitsha shopkeepers decided to negotiate: ‘[The gangsters] told us, “Look, you can give us money per month, then you will never be killed and you will never be robbed. Anyone who robs you, we will apprehend them. The police will do nothing for you. So, are you going to agree or not?” That is how it came about.’

Extortion in Cape Town’s township economies is now a well-publicised phenomenon. Street vendors, spaza shopkeepers and even municipal service staff have complained of being threatened or extorted by criminals. This raises a strong possibility that the decline in business robbery could be linked to a corresponding increase in extortion in the city’s townships. It might be that the more reported business robberies go down, the more extortion is going up.

Might extortion be a positive development if it prevents violent attacks on businesses and saves lives? Perhaps, but business robbery declines in townships haven’t been mirrored by declines in violent crime. For example, murder (the most accurate indicator of violent crime rates) in Philippi East rose from 47 cases in 2012/13 to 165 in 2022/23. Khayelitsha experiences only slightly fewer murders today than it did a decade ago.

Although robbery involves violence, so does extortion. Gangs attack those who don’t pay fees, and deadly clashes frequently break out between extortionists over territories and control.

At the same time, the perceived benefits of extortion – in this case, a drop in reported cases of business robbery – could be misleading. Victims might still be experiencing numerous robberies, but may be reporting them to extortion gangs rather than the police.

In its Western Cape 2013/14 Annual Report 10 years ago, the SAPS said, ‘Youths from the very community who “hang” around in the neighbourhood all day have been identified as the main culprits robbing spaza shops.’ In contrast, the extortion networks that have gained a footing in township neighbourhoods today comprise organised syndicates that are potentially harder to uproot.

Unlike previous unchecked business robberies, the extortion that may be replacing them poses a danger to South Africans and foreign nationals alike. Municipal service vehicles cannot access areas due to threats against staff, making it difficult to remove waste and provide sanitation. At the same time, small businesses are being hamstrung by violence, threats and fees, stifling economic development and livelihoods.

The marked fall in reported business robberies should not be taken at face value. Instead, it warrants scrutiny as a potential indicator of rising extortion and organised crime. Effective, targeted policing strategies are essential to address these evolving dangers and protect vulnerable communities, including foreign retailers.

The ISS is calling for enhanced data analysis as a means to improve the SAPS, as it enables a better understanding of crime dynamics to drive crime prevention efforts. This is reflected in Cape Town, where the case of business robberies shows that it’s not enough to draw immediate conclusions from simple changes in crime trends.

Interpreting these figures requires further analysis of crime patterns and victim profiles, as well as how certain crimes interrelate and have the potential to supplant each other.

Written by Vanya Gastrow, Senior Researcher, Justice and Violence Prevention, ISS Pretoria.

Republished with permission from ISS Africa. The original article can be found at ISS today here.

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Throughout its existence to date the ISS has followed and analysed crime trends and police performance. While strides were made during the first half of the country’s democracy, police effectiveness declined since 2012, according to an ISS statement. As an example, the SAPS detection rate for murder dropped from 31% to 12% and almost three out of four people surveyed in 2021 said they had little or no trust in the police.

“This decline is partly due to a shifting crime landscape as a result of growing social and economic challenges and new technology, while the SAPS – a large and cumbersome organisation – changed very little over the past couple of decades,” Gareth Newham, ISS Head of Justice and Violence Prevention, said.

The SAPS needs renewal and clear direction, the ISS maintains. As an initial, urgent measure, Mchunu should formally direct the service to focus on reducing firearm crime and violence, which will bring down murder and robbery rates. Between 2011 and 2023, murders increased by 77% and armed robberies by over 41%.

Within six months Mchunu should issue a clear and bold national policing policy aimed at improving police performance, particularly concerning crime intelligence and investigation.

These are included in practical measures the ISS outlined in a new set of police reforms launched on 27 June. Covering leadership, serious and violent crime, police corruption, data and technology, and auxiliary policing, the recommendations are a foundation for an effective and trusted police service.

Given the scale and complexity of crime in South Africa, the man who replaced Bheki Cele will need to draw on the advice of experts both inside and outside the SAPS. “We encourage him to make use of the knowledge and skills available in policy institutes like the ISS, non-governmental organisations, academic institutions and the private sector. We are ready to assist,” the statement reads, in part.

The full ISS document on strengthening the SAPS can be found here.

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According to Gareth Newham, Head of the ISS’ Justice and Violence Prevention Programme, “we have to get on top of our murder rate” which is “driven by firearms.”

With guns the leading weapon used in murder in South Africa, the ISS urged that firearm crime and violence be “the initial focus of SAPS.” Key priorities to recover illegal firearms and better regulate legal firearm stocks identified in the ISS report include:

· Mapping all gun-related crimes to ensure that police responses are better targeted, perpetrators are identified, and sources of illegal firearms are disrupted more effectively. In this regard the report calls for the establishment of dedicated firearm units with adequate intelligence support in all provinces.

· Implementing measures to address problems facing the Central Firearms Registry, which include rigorously addressing corruption in SAPS firearm management, fully digitising the system, and substantially enhancing oversight and accountability for lost firearms.

The report also calls on other stakeholders, such as the National Prosecuting Authority to prioritise the prosecution of firearm violence and other related firearm offences, and for parliament to oversee crime and violence prevention interventions.

Gun Free SA said in a statement that it welcomes the ISS’ recommendations. Says Adèle Kirsten, Director of GFSA, “gun violence in SA is at crisis levels: 34 people are shot and killed every day with mass killings becoming increasingly common. Addressing gun violence must be a priority for the whole of government.”

She notes that a key intervention to addressing gun violence in SA that was not included in the ISS report is the strengthening of South Africa’s gun law. “Since the Firearms Control Act was passed into law in 2000 a range of developments mean it is no longer fit for purpose e.g. loopholes are exploited by gun owners to accumulate guns and ammunition, while gun ownership for self-defence is allowed despite overwhelming evidence globally and in South Africa that guns are not effective for self-protection,” Gun Free SA maintains.

“The power of the law to reduce gun violence is evident from South Africa’s own experience. In the first years of democracy SA’s gun violence levels were as high as today, with 34 people shot dead daily. As a result of effective gun control that focused on both recovering and destroying illegal guns and restricting licensed guns to stop their leakage and illegal use, the number of people shot dead almost halved in 10 years,” Gun Free SA said.

“SA’s own experience shows that gun control is crime control,” says Kirsten, a fact that was recognised by Newham, who said that controlling guns is an “immediate and short-term focus that will have the biggest impact.”

Gun Free SA urged government to seriously engage with the IS’ report and prioritise gun violence reduction.

One of the big problems is not heavily controlled legal guns but illegal guns falling into criminal hands – sometimes via the police. Men and women in National Police Commissioner General Fannie Masemola’s SA Police Service reported 742 firearms stolen in the 2022/23 financial year with just a third of them – 245 – recovered, for example.

Criminals have also resorted to opening security companies to access firearms.

An earlier ISS report on multiple murders and gun crime found that rising firearm-related crime, often linked to the activities of criminal groups, partly reflects chronic dysfunction and corruption in the SAPS, including in crime intelligence and the firearm registry. These two components of the police should be vital to the control of illegal guns and organised crime, the ISS said.

Some suggestions for addressing these interlinked problems include a specialised firearms unit, or targeted police operations that confiscate illegal guns and ammunition. It is generally agreed that responses should include better intelligence gathering and analysis of crime data.

“These measures could be helpful, but a piecemeal approach will have limited impact. South Africa’s crime and violence challenge extends beyond firearms and organised crime to chronic problems such as gender-based violence, corruption and infrastructure theft.

“These problems can only be tackled through a strategic approach to strengthening the SAPS and criminal justice system. Until there’s a clearly defined programme for doing so, the state’s ability to deal with the deteriorating public safety situation is unlikely to improve,” the ISS cautioned.

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These are some of the recommendations that the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) has put forward to strengthen the South African Police Service (SAPS) for a safer South Africa.

“A better, safer South Africa is possible. But this requires that those with authority and the Constitutional mandate to reduce crime recognise the need for urgent measures that can create a trusted SAPS made up of members recognised for their professionalism and integrity.”

Institute for Security Studies.

Gareth Newham, Head of Justice and Violence Prevention at the ISS Pretoria, said at the launch of the report: Strengthening the SAPS for a safer South Africa: Recommendations for police reform on Thursday that a better policing was possible in the country.

“Policing is one of the most difficult jobs you can have in SA given our crime rate, our massive socio-economic challenges is a really complex and difficult endeavour.”

The recommendations took two years to compile.

“Many police members do good work and many criminals end up in prisons as a result. We applaud these successes. Nevertheless, since 2012, we have become increasingly concerned by evidence that SAPS’ organisational performance and policing generally in South Africa are in a state of decline. This means that a far greater impact could have been achieved to reduce crime and improve public safety with the available resources than has been the case for many years.”

“But for a long time, little serious thought has been given to what needs to be done to
strengthen the SAPS. Instead, the common assumption is that the ability of the police to
better tackle crime can be solved largely by adding more resources. Indeed, the SAPS will
have received an additional 30 000 new recruits between 2022/23 and the end of the 2024/25 financial year.”

“We believe that more personnel alone will not prevent the further decline of the SAPS. More personnel can only help if they are highly skilled, resourced, motivated and deployed according to regularly assessed evidence-based strategic and operational plans that target specific networks and groups of criminals. This requires an organisational culture characterised by integrity, innovation, agility, transparency and accountability,” said the ISS.

The ISS recommends that the police minister must provide strategic direction on how to professionalise the SAPS; strengthen SAPS leadership and management and build a more positive and professional police identity.

The implementation will include: The president’s performance agreement with the minister must focus on providing evidence based policy leadership and rigorous oversight to ensure the measurable professionalisation of the SAPS and strengthen the overall policing system. (This includes the Independent Police Investigative Directorate, CPFs, Private Security Industry Regulatory Authority, etc.). As an initial, urgent measure, the minister should formally direct the SAPS to prioritise reducing levels of murder, by focusing on firearm crime and violence. The minister’s performance agreement should include improvements in detection rates for violent and firearm-related crimes.

The SAPS national commissioner should urgently create an executive management system based on sound organisational principles aimed at promoting efficiency and effectiveness to ensure effective decision making and accountability.

Serious violent crime must be reduced by focusing on firearm crime and violence; and strengthen crime investigation and rationalise other police capabilities.

“Reducing firearm-related crime should be the initial focus of an SAPS strategy to substantially reduce murder. This does not replace other important priorities, but is a necessary short- to medium-term priority to demonstrably improve public safety and build confidence in the SAPS. To support the strategy, the National Prosecuting Authority should be requested to prioritise the prosecution of firearm violence and other related firearm offences, such as the possession of illegal firearms and ammunition.”

“The SAPS should accurately map all crimes linked to the use of firearms. This would enable police responses to be better targeted, perpetrators identified, and sources of illegal firearms disrupted more effectively. Dedicated firearm units with adequate intelligence support should be established in all provinces, with coordination at national level. Their key performance measure must be a reduction in shootings, murders and attempted murders with firearms and all firearm-related crimes.”

Speaking at the launch, national police commissioner Fanie Masemola welcomed the recommendations.

“As organisation we welcome ideas and any contribution by society is welcomed. It is a very large organisation, a very complex one.”

“We are policing a very dynamic and complex contemporary South Africa, which we as the SAPS accept and the power of the dynamics of new people with new challenges that come to our shore. We say together, as South Africans, let’s engage in a discussion on the type of police we want in this country. Let’s move together in that regard.”

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