The ANC prioritises community policing, emphasising the involvement of local communities in crime prevention. On the other hand, the DA advocates for a more professional and well-equipped police force.

Interestingly, a compatibility test has shown that if the ANC and DA were to form a coalition, their combined efforts could effectively decrease crime rates.

Independent social economist and business and process consultant, Louis Kruger has measured the parties’ compatibility, by analysing their policies, media responses and press releases, public sentiment surveys and case studies.

“After evaluating the potential outcomes of various coalition arrangements following the 2024 South African elections, I believe that a partnership between the ANC and DA could have a positive impact on public safety and crime reduction in the country.”

Kruger said the ANC and DA‘s take on public safety and crime are:

• Policing Strategies: Both parties want better policing but have different methods. ANC focuses on community policing, while DA wants more professional and well-resourced police.
• Crime Prevention: ANC believes in community programs to prevent crime, while DA wants to use data and evidence to create effective strategies.
• Judicial Reforms: Both want a better judicial system, but the DA pushes more for accountability and speed.
• Corruption: Both agree on fighting corruption, but the DA is stricter about transparency.
• Resource Allocation: ANC wants resources spread fairly across communities, while DA focuses on using resources efficiently and transparently.“

“By combining their respective 40.18% and 21.81% vote shares, the ANC and DA would represent a majority of the population and could form a moderate, more stable coalition government. This political stability and centrist approach could send positive signals to the business community, encouraging investment and economic growth. In turn, increased economic opportunities and social programs aimed at addressing the root causes of crime could contribute to a safer public environment.”

“While no political solution is perfect, an ANC-DA coalition has the potential to strike a balance between the parties’ differing perspectives and prioritise the common goal of improving public safety for all South Africans,” Kruger explained.

Independent researcher on policing, David Bruce told ProtectionWeb a coalition “certainly could” lead to crime reduction.

“It would depend on appointing a minister who is strongly motivated to improve public safety and is suitable for the job in terms of being able to negotiate both the political and the policy side of the issue. Generally we have had ministers who are politicians but who neglect the need for strategic policy on how to strengthen the police,” he said.

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Results from the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) showed that the African National Congress was in the lead with 42.3% of the votes.

The Democratic Alliance had 26.3 of the support from this voting districts while the Economic Freedom Fighters won 8.1% of the votes.

Election Day for hundreds of South Africans stretched into Thursday morning as “faulty scanners” plagued many voting stations. The IEC then ordered presiding officers to use the manual method instead.

To keep up to date on the results, visit the IEC results dashboard.

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The ANC over the next five years promises to Intensify the war on crime and make communities safe. This includes action against drugs, organised crime, gender-based violence and femicide, infrastructure theft and vandalism, extortion and gangsterism.

To keep homes and streets safe and protect the borders, the ANC says it will take a comprehensive approach to fighting crime through the Integrated Violence and Crime Prevention Strategy; modernise policing with more frontline police officers; resource Community Policing Forums; develop capabilities to combat cybercrime, essential infrastructure crimes, illegal firearms, gang violence, crime syndicates, human and drug trafficking, and corruption; provide additional capacity to the Hawks to tackle organised crime; implement a data-driven approach to target violent crime hotspots; strengthen the justice system; act against extortion and violence in the construction sector by strengthening the SAPS Economic Infrastructure Task Teams; tackle priority crimes like gang violence and cash-in-transit heists through specialised police units; and strengthen anti-money laundering efforts and secure South Africa’s removal from the FATF list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring.

Illegal immigration

To address the illegal immigration problem, the ANC says it will complete the overhaul of South Africa’s immigration policy and systems “including the Citizenship Act, Refugees Act and Immigration Act, towards a single law dealing with citizenship, immigration and refugees to prevent contradictions and meet the new challenges facing South Africa.”

The ruling party also aims to locate refugee and asylum centres close to border posts, regulate the employment of foreign workers in line with the National Labour Migration Policy, to give preference to South African job-seekers and act against employment and exploitation of undocumented persons; simplify visa applications; and use technology to modernise systems to prevent fraud and bogus documents.

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Zero to negligible.

But the risk of a rebellion by rogue supporters of a heavily-factionalised ANC disgruntled by any major power loss is potentially considerable – as is the risk of security agency departments undermining non-ANC ministers post-election, say analysts and security force insiders.

Whilst the risk of an outright coup is regarded as zero, a far higher risk is angry supporters of the now-ruling party seeking to undermine any new government through mass action, strikes and protests, say experts.

It’s a volatile situation and uncharted territory, say observers.

How South Africa’s security forces, themselves highly factionalised, react to any possible ANC power loss –  whether an outright loss or security departments managed by unstable coalition partners – is increasingly debated by security analysts, experts and commentators.

A central issue is if security/intelligence agencies and their leadership will submit to political leaders from different political parties, and if such political leaders can manage a transition period insightfully and sensitively.

Therefore if the actual coup risk by police, SA National Defence Force, the State Security Agency (SSA) and others within government’s NatJoints structure is indeed non-existent, other centrifugal forces are at play.

No coup – except in apartheid Bantustans – has ever taken place in a unitary South Africa.

But will the long-standing – pre-dating even apartheid – tradition of obedience to legal civilian authority hold, or will a chain of command culture staffed mostly by ANC cadres for 30 years undermine constitutionality to cover up decades of capture, corruption and mismanagement?

Security forces could just stand still – as with the July 2021 riots – and do nothing whilst disgruntled masses, possibly feeling disenfranchised by election loss, take to the streets.

Former chief of the SA Police Service, General George Fivaz, and the  Institute for Security Studies (ISS) have a focused and informed insight.

Fivaz says inherent coalition instability is the real danger, with potential unrest and security force resistance mitigated by an ANC still expected to be the premier political party after May 29, with real stability only possible with a government of national unity.

But he does concede in any choice between chain of command or the Constitution, security forces will choose the former.

Yet SA’s unstable socio-economic make-up creates a volatile climate irresponsible politicians can exploit if election results are not acceptable, says Willie Els, a senior analyst and programme manager at the Pretoria-based Institute of Security Studies.

 “Both the Police and military are under-staffed, under-funded and not efficiently trained to deal with such challenges.

“The question is, will such forces submit to and follow political leaders from different political parties?”

Along with the ANC itself, all South African security and intelligence agencies are known to be  highly-factionalised and politicised, raising the possibility of both inter and intra-agency confrontation.

Fivaz believes the risk of a traditional coup is zero and any isolated upsurge in post-election violence can be handled by the security forces.

“Yes, members of the security forces abuse their power every day, but I really believe that the possibility of a coup in South Africa is next to zero, and that the security forces are capable of dealing with whatever upheavals might emerge from election results,” said Fivaz.

Regarding non-ANC ministers and politicians who might take over security departments in possible coalitions, this can be handled effectively as was done in South Africa’s most recent power-loss situation, the advent of democracy following the April 1994 elections.

Security forces have shown indications that they have learned the lesson of the politically-sparked 2021 mass unrest, Fivaz adds.

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In its latest report, titled The Politics of Murder, the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) found an average of at least one political hit every two weeks between January and April this year.

the killings are brutal, often carried out by hitmen with little regard for bystanders and frequently targeting high-profile individuals. The killings have also become more brazen, with victims targeted at public gatherings, often in front of children and community members

GI-TOC

In the report, GI-TOC analysts Chwayita Thobela and Rumbi Matamba said there were always spikes in political assassinations during election years, particularly in long-contested provinces such as KwaZulu-Natal.

“The 2024 elections, the sixth national election in the country’s 30 years of democracy, have been earmarked as a potential watershed moment, with the ruling African National Congress (ANC) facing challenges in securing its National Assembly majority. Recent changes in what has long been a stagnant political landscape include a rise in coalition governments and the formation of several new political parties, most significantly the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, whose campaigning has been led by former president Jacob Zuma.”

“The MK party already holds substantial support in Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal, a former ANC stronghold, where it threatens to dilute ANC votes. The ANC’s waning influence, on the back of high unemployment and crime rates, cost of living increases and widespread government corruption, including unaddressed state capture revelations, means that the 2024 elections could see several political power shifts.”

GI-TOC said the breakdown of hits by province follows the pattern of previous years, with the highest number of political assassinations in 2023 recorded in KwaZulu-Natal.

“Significantly fewer cases were recorded in Gauteng (two), the Eastern Cape (two), Limpopo (one), Mpumalanga (three) and the Western Cape (four). The motives behind these killings in KwaZulu-Natal and elsewhere vary, but include eliminating political rivals, intimidating voters, removing competitors for local government contracts, targeting municipal workers responsible for awarding these contracts, and silencing those who speak out against corruption, particularly in local government.”

While around 64 elections are happening around the world in 2024, South Africa’s elections stand out for “the very real threat of violence that they bring,  a cumulation of the influence of criminal networks and state-embedded actors in driving criminality.”

“Indeed, targeted killings in South Africa are interconnected with criminal networks and state-embedded actors, with flare-ups in violence from competition in the minibus taxi industry, gang dynamics and electoral disputes.”

“Targeted killings affect who can contest in municipal elections, lead to increased violence in gang-afflicted communities, influence transparency and accountability in state-owned enterprises, and affect the provision of essential services such as water, electricity and sanitation. Targeted killings are a manifestation of the extent of criminal governance in South Africa, with criminals filling the gaps left by the state, with particularly devastating consequences for a relatively young democracy,” the report said.

Thobela and Matamba said violence not only violates political and civil rights but also undermines democracy by allowing criminal elements to influence or control government functions.

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